Written by - | Apr 17, 2025 2:51:48 PM
Key takeaways
- While the peak in trade uncertainty may be behind us, the path forward remains bumpy as the risk of a US recession is real. And the likely mix of positive and negative headlines could keep markets on edge.
- The spike in volatility, the reset in valuations, and signs that the worst-case trade war scenario may be averted suggest that stocks may find some support and possibly attempt to carve out a bottom. Our base case scenario is for near-term range bound dynamics. But history shows that bottoming is a process. Technical rebound might be brutal but could prove to be short-lived if unsupported by clarity on the tariff side and the Fed. A retest of the lows cannot be excluded.
- We recommend staying cautious on risk assets and to avoid emotionally charged decisions. Focus on diversification, quality investments, and keep a long-term perspective.