--- title: "BOE June Preview: Holding Steady Before Elections?" description: "Executive Summary: The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on June 20th with expectations set for maintaining the current Bank Rate amid recent economic and inflationary developments. Despite a strong initial performance in June, the UK government bonds have stagnated since the last BOE meeting.\n\n• Watch This: The focus is on the number of MPC members supporting a rate cut (currently 2 out of 9) and any forward guidance regarding future rate adjustments.\n• Market Strategy: Preference for the short end over the back end of the UK government yield curve continues, as GBP strengthens amidst differing economic dynamics between the US and UK." image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Flash_240619_cover.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. You can change your settings below to refuse the use of cookies. For more information, please refer to the [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices). Mandatory cookies Functional cookies Statistics & marketing I confirm I am not a US citizen residing in the US I confirm I am not accessing this site from the US I confirm that I am not a resident of Canada (except for Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia or Alberta). Agree and confirm ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… You chose the following profile. If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/food-for-thought) ### BOE June Preview: Holding Steady Before Elections? Executive Summary: The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on June 20th with expectations set for maintaining the current Bank Rate amid recent economic and inflationary developments. Despite a strong initial performance in June, the UK government bonds have stagnated since the last BOE meeting. • Watch This: The focus is on the number of MPC members supporting a rate cut (currently 2 out of 9) and any forward guidance regarding future rate adjustments. • Market Strategy: Preference for the short end over the back end of the UK government yield curve continues, as GBP strengthens amidst differing economic dynamics between the US and UK. [![Gaël Fichan](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/gael.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/gaël-fichan) [**Gaël Fichan**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/gaël-fichan) Head Fixed Income & Senior Portfolio Manager ![Adrien Pichoud](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/_ERC1697%202.jpg) **Adrien Pichoud** Head of Fixed Income **Wednesday, 06/19/2024** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz_Flash_2024-06-19b.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - --- ## **Macro Update: Resuming Growth Amid Persistent Inflationary Pressures**   The UK's economy shows signs of robust recovery from the 2023 recession, with Q1 witnessing a 0.6% GDP growth driven by private investment. Despite a slowdown expected post-Q1, the economy should continue to grow near its long-term potential, though restrictive monetary policy remains a challenge.     **Chart 1: Economic indicators point toward an improving growth dynamic.** **![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-26-56-4190-PM.png?width=826&height=467&name=image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-26-56-4190-PM.png)** Source: Factset Inflation presents a mixed picture. While core inflation (excluding food and energy) has increased due to strong demand and rising wages, the overall annual inflation rate is on a downward trend, aligning closer to the BOE's 2% target. However, unexpected early-year inflationary pressures and persistent wage growth warrant caution from the central bank. --- ## **What to expect from the BoE meeting? NO change** The Bank of England is expected to maintain its Bank Rate at 5.25% on June 20th. Since the last meeting, where 2 out of 9 Monetary Policy Committee members favored a 25bp rate cut, inflation and wage data have continued to exceed expectations. Consumer price data for May, released this morning, show that headline inflation is back on the BoE 2% target for the first time in three years. However, May’s data also reveal resilient underlying inflationary pressures (“core” CPI +0.5% in May, +3.5% YoY) that should lead the BoE to remain on hold for the time being. The vote split for the likely "no change" decision could offer clues about potential shifts in MPC members' views. While growth and underlying inflation drivers suggest a delay in rate adjustments, the Bank is expected to wait until its September 18th meeting to begin reducing the Bank Rate. The August 1st meeting is probably too soon for such decisions, and the Bank may seek further clarity on the policies of the new government post-July 4th elections. Nonetheless, the trend towards a recalibration of interest rates in the medium term is clear. The UK's monetary policy needs to remain restrictive for now, and any rate cuts must await a sustained easing in inflationary pressures. **Chart 2: The Base Rate will likely decrease as inflationary pressures abate.** ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-28-52-6411-PM.png?width=736&height=511&name=image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-28-52-6411-PM.png) Source:Factset  --- ## **UK Government Bond Yields: A Cautious Market** Despite a strong start in June, UK government bonds have shown a tepid performance, with continued negative returns year-to-date. Market anticipation of BOE actions has shifted throughout 2024, now expecting a slower pace of rate cuts. **Chart 3: Total Return of UK Government Bonds over the last four years** **![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-31-13-5238-PM.png?width=827&height=473&name=image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-31-13-5238-PM.png)** Source: Bloomberg The strategy of "one rate cut per quarter" is favored, benefiting the short end of the UK yield curve. However, the back end remains unattractive, influenced by the ongoing reduction of the BOE’s balance sheet. --- **Chart 4: Market Expectations for BoE Official Bank Rate: Today vs. December 2023** **![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-35-16-0450-PM.png?width=831&height=472&name=image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-35-16-0450-PM.png)** Source: Bloomberg Finally, the differential between 5-year US and UK yields, which has tightened since the last meeting, illustrates the contrasting economic trajectories of the UK and US, aiding in the slight strengthening of the GBP. **Chart 5: Yield Differential between 5-year US and UK Yields and USD/GBP Exchange Rate** **![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-36-02-8601-PM.png?width=826&height=470&name=image-png-Jun-19-2024-12-36-02-8601-PM.png)** Source: Bloomberg  --- ## **Conclusion** The June BOE meeting is expected to mirror the non-eventful nature of May's meeting, with no significant impact on the bond market anticipated. The focus remains on the short end of the yield curve, guided by the ongoing balance sheet reduction and a steepening yield curve. As we approach the general elections, the BOE's cautious stance is likely to prevail, underscoring the need for investors to stay alert to subtle market cues. --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. 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Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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