--- title: The SNB’s monetary policy of the steady hand description: Analysis of SNB meeting and press conference on 25.09.2025 image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/iStock-2144620948.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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[Food for Thoughts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/food-for-thoughts) ### The SNB’s monetary policy of the steady hand Analysis of SNB meeting and press conference on 25.09.2025 [![Reto Cueni, PhD](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Reto%20Cueni.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/reto-cueni) [**Reto Cueni, PhD**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/reto-cueni) Chief Economist **Thursday, 09/25/2025** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/awyneken/OneDrive%20-%20Banque%20Syz%20SA/Desktop/Syz-Flash_2025-09-25_SNB.pdf) - - - - --- The Swiss National Bank is pursuing its monetary policy with a steady hand and leaves the key interest rate at 0%. This decision appears reasonable given the current economic and political situation and aligns with financial market expectations. The Swiss economy continues to perform relatively well despite the US tariff shock, core inflation remains within a healthy range, and the ECB is also keeping key interest rates unchanged for now, with little indication of change ahead. As a result, the Swiss franc has shown hardly any movement against the euro since the end of June. Since we currently anticipate fewer interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve than the market does, we also see less pressure on the SNB to reduce its key interest rate further. Hence, we do not expect any further changes to the SNB's key interest rate until at least the end of this year, and likely not before mid-2026. --- **A high hurdle for a negative policy rate** In both its press conference and its written assessment, the SNB committee highlighted the considerable uncertainty facing the Swiss export sector, which also remains the biggest question mark in our current economic outlook for Switzerland. Should a significant deterioration occur, the SNB could come under greater pressure to lower interest rates below zero after all. Nevertheless, SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasised several times that the SNB sees a bigger hurdle in going “below zero” than in a conventional interest rate cut of 25 basis points. We interpret these statements to mean that the SNB is now more attuned to the drawbacks of a negative key interest rate than it was when it first moved below zero. Consequently, a further deterioration of the Swiss economy—particularly in the export sector due to US import tariffs—would need to be significantly more severe for the SNB to consider taking the step of cutting rates “below zero” again. **The delicate situation around the US-Swiss tariff dispute could influence the SNB** At the press conference, the three-member SNB Governing Board also stated that it continues to see both instruments—a cut in the key interest rate to below zero and possible interventions in the foreign exchange market—as valuable policy tools, should circumstances require them. However, given the tense situation with the US over the tariff dispute, we see little appetite on the SNB’s part to risk once again having to justify to US authorities that Switzerland is not engaging in ‘currency manipulation’. We therefore expect the SNB to exercise great caution in deploying this instrument, at least until a resolution is reached in the tariff dispute. In addition, with the SNB's inflation broadly unchanged from June—and even showing a slight upward revision in the second quarter of 2028, which was projected for the first time—today's decision appears consistent and should not come as a surprise to the financial markets. --- **Chart 1: As long as inflation stays steadily above, the SNB will likely stay at zero** ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Sep-25-2025-10-27-20-7970-AM.png?width=741&height=556&name=image-png-Sep-25-2025-10-27-20-7970-AM.png) Source: FactSet, SNB, Syz Bank **Chart 2: The SNB’s inflation forecast shows a slightly stronger inflation for the coming quarters** ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Sep-25-2025-10-27-59-1458-AM.png?width=940&height=398&name=image-png-Sep-25-2025-10-27-59-1458-AM.png) --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. 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