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Welcome to Bank Syz 2024 global outlook.
As we head into the New Year, several words beginning with the letter R come to mind.
1. Recovery
Firstly, it’s time to take a step back to analyse the remarkable Recovery of bonds and equity markets that took place after the double whammy bear market of 2022. As we highlight in our “2023 in the rear-view” section, we just ended a historic year for markets. Bonds and equity markets both contributed positively to performance. The rise of the Magnificent 7, the resilience of the economy and the global disinflation trend made the headlines in 2023.
2. Recession
Secondly, will the global economy avoid a Recession in 2024? In our global economic outlook, we share the view that there is indeed a path toward lower inflation but weak, more balanced global growth.
3. Rates
Thirdly, Rates are expected to be cut by most central banks in 2024, which could lead to the year of redemption for Fixed Income markets. In our Top 7 CIO convictions, we
share the view that dovish central banks, coupled with positive earnings momentum, is a rather favourable context for risk assets. More accommodative central banks can also
be supportive for alternatives.
4. Rotation
The fourth R is about Rotation. The equity market advance that took place between the Fall 2022 and September 2023 was very narrow, driven by a handful of US mega-cap tech stocks. As highlighted in our equity outlook, we expect a moderate but broadening bull market in 2024.
5. Risks
Finally, the world remains full of Risks. Our “10 surprises 2024” and “2024 Trading outlook” remind us that we navigate through a world full of unexpected developments, whether they are on the geopolitical, macro-economic or market side. We hope you find our insights helpful and we look forward to partnering with you in 2024.
Charles-Henry Monchau
Chief Investment Officer
Disclaimer
This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.
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Risk assets are off to a very decent start of the year. While some key hurdles are now behind us, we believe that volatility could pick-up in the second half of the year as central banks might have to maintain restrictive financial conditions while economic growth is slowing down.