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Welcome to Bank Syz 2024 global outlook.
As we head into the New Year, several words beginning with the letter R come to mind.
1. Recovery
Firstly, it’s time to take a step back to analyse the remarkable Recovery of bonds and equity markets that took place after the double whammy bear market of 2022. As we highlight in our “2023 in the rear-view” section, we just ended a historic year for markets. Bonds and equity markets both contributed positively to performance. The rise of the Magnificent 7, the resilience of the economy and the global disinflation trend made the headlines in 2023.
2. Recession
Secondly, will the global economy avoid a Recession in 2024? In our global economic outlook, we share the view that there is indeed a path toward lower inflation but weak, more balanced global growth.
3. Rates
Thirdly, Rates are expected to be cut by most central banks in 2024, which could lead to the year of redemption for Fixed Income markets. In our Top 7 CIO convictions, we
share the view that dovish central banks, coupled with positive earnings momentum, is a rather favourable context for risk assets. More accommodative central banks can also
be supportive for alternatives.
4. Rotation
The fourth R is about Rotation. The equity market advance that took place between the Fall 2022 and September 2023 was very narrow, driven by a handful of US mega-cap tech stocks. As highlighted in our equity outlook, we expect a moderate but broadening bull market in 2024.
5. Risks
Finally, the world remains full of Risks. Our “10 surprises 2024” and “2024 Trading outlook” remind us that we navigate through a world full of unexpected developments, whether they are on the geopolitical, macro-economic or market side. We hope you find our insights helpful and we look forward to partnering with you in 2024.
Charles-Henry Monchau
Chief Investment Officer
Disclaimer
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