Thinking out loud

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    Florian Marini

    Florian Marini

    Head of Research

    Reto Cueni

    Reto Cueni

    Chief Economist

    Friday, 09/11/2026 |

     
    Switzerland deserves its own investment strategy
    "At Syz, independent research and strong convictions have always been at the heart of our investment philosophy. Swiss Perspectives is a natural extension of that approach, bringing together our views across macroeconomics, fixed income, the Swiss franc, equities and thematic investments.
    Our objective is simple: to provide a coherent investment framework that explains what is changing, why it matters, and how to translate it into portfolio decisions. Rather than commenting on markets, we seek to identify the trends that will shape investment opportunities over the months ahead.
    The case for looking closer is compelling. Switzerland has ranked first in the WIPO Global Innovation Index for fifteen consecutive years and files more than twice as many European patents per capita as any other country. That innovation is investable. Beyond the blue chips lies a universe of around 120 listed companies: global leaders in pharmaceuticals, medtech, automation and precision engineering, many still overlooked by international investors and several approaching important inflection points. Helping investors uncover these opportunities, across every Swiss asset class, is precisely the purpose of this publication.
    As this inaugural edition reaches you in the days following Swiss National Day, I would like, on behalf of the entire Syz Research team, to wish you a wonderful start to August, and many editions to come."

    Florian Marini CFA, CMT, Head of Research

    Swiss Equities

    Defensive at the Core, Cyclical at the Margin

     The investment case for Swiss equities is broadening. Switzerland retains its defensive strengths, with leaders such as Novartis, Nestlé, Roche, Zurich Insurance and Julius Baer delivering resilient earnings, strong cash flow and attractive shareholder returns. At the same time, Swiss industrial and medtech companies are gaining exposure to structural growth driven by AI data centres, semiconductors, electrification, power infrastructure and automation. Recent earnings confirm this shift, with resilient results, stronger order books and positive guidance across healthcare, financials and industrials. Switzerland therefore offers a rare combination of earnings resilience, industrial quality and structural growth. Manufacturing PMI reached 53.0, while services climbed to 63.9.

    Corporate earnings confirm the manufacturing recovery
    Switzerland’s improving industrial backdrop is increasingly visible in corporate results, with companies such as ABB, VAT Group, Bossard and SFS reporting stronger demand across electrification, AI data centres, semiconductors, aerospace and rail. Small and mid-cap stocks, with around 30% exposure to industrials and medtech, have gained roughly 8% year-to-date. Despite technology representing only 1.5% of the Swiss Performance Index versus 38% for the S&P 500, Switzerland has significant indirect exposure to AI infrastructure through companies supplying electrification, semiconductor equipment, cooling, connectivity and automation. Valuations remain premium, at 18–19x forward earnings, but improving earnings expectations support the outlook.

    Economy

    Swiss economic and central bank outlook

    Swiss GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, supported by manufacturing and public spending, while weak domestic demand and lower pharmaceutical exports weighed on activity. Employment continues to rise, although unemployment and jobseekers are higher than a year ago. We expect GDP growth of around 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, with consumption, investment and exports gradually strengthening. Inflation remains subdued at 0.5% year-on-year, and is expected to average around 0.5% in 2026–27. Geopolitical tensions, energy prices and US trade uncertainty remain key risks. The SNB kept rates at 0% and remains prepared to counter excessive franc appreciation. 

    Forex

    What happens with the Swiss Franc ?
    The Swiss franc has softened against both the euro and US dollar after its earlier strength. EUR/CHF averaged 0.925 in July and reached 0.932 on 3 August, while USD/CHF averaged 0.810 and reached 0.812. Over two months, the franc weakened around 3.5% against the dollar, reflecting stronger US data, more hawkish Fed rhetoric and reduced demand for safe-haven positions. Against the euro, higher European rate expectations and signs of recovery also contributed. Nevertheless, the franc remains historically strong, supported by Switzerland’s low inflation, external surplus and defensive profile. The SNB’s willingness to intervene limits excessive appreciation, making the move more cyclical than structural. 

    Fixed Income

    Rising rates weight on long maturities
    Swiss fixed income faced pressure in July as rising global yields weighed on longer maturities. We expect medium- and long-term Swiss rates to remain range-bound in H2, with risks tilted toward higher yields, while credit spreads should remain tight. The Swiss Confederation 1–10 year index fell 0.82% in July, while CHF investment-grade corporate bonds declined 0.53%. Year-to-date, however, corporate bonds remained positive at 0.32%, supported by resilient credit markets and attractive carry. The yield curve bear-steepened, with 5-year yields rising 18bp to 0.32% and 10-year yields increasing 16bp to 0.45%. The SNB is expected to remain on hold through year-end.
     

    See our full Outlook in the PDF attached.

     

    Disclaimer

    This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

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