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The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) ### When will the music stop? H1 2025 [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Thursday, 12/12/2024** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/awyneken/OneDrive%20-%20Banque%20Syz%20SA/Desktop/Syz-MarketOutlook%202025d.pdf) - - - -   ## Welcome to Syz Bank's 2025 Global outlook! 2024 has been a remarkable year for global markets, with equity indices, gold, and bitcoin reaching or nearing all-time highs. As we prepare to step into 2025, the question remains: what lies ahead? Let’s review the good, the bad, and the ugly of next year’s investment outlook.   --- **The Good** The current global macroeconomic and microeconomic landscape is favourable for risk assets, particularly U.S. equities. Here’s why: •    Reflation is occurring in the world’s largest economies, with both the U.S. and China simultaneously experiencing economic expansion. •    The U.S. administration remains pro-growth, with policies that continue to support business growth and economic activity. •    Real interest rates are expected to decline in most developed economies, providing further economic stimulus. •    Corporate earnings are projected to grow at double-digit rates next year, indicating a strong earnings outlook. **The Bad** While the outlook remains positive, much of the good news appears to be already reflected in current market prices. The S&P 500 is trading at nearly 28 times its earnings over the past year, a historically high valuation, and credit spreads have tightened to record lows. While this doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent downturn, it does suggest heightened risks. Any unexpected negative developments could place significant downward pressure on the markets. **And finally, the UGLY.** The U.S.'s unique position in the global economy brings its own set of challenges. Government spending continues to climb, with rising debt and fiscal dominance posing long-term risks that cannot be overlooked. Inflationary policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and restrictive immigration measures, have the potential to drive inflation higher, which could lead to increased long-term bond yields. In turn, these higher yields might trigger a correction in equity markets, adding to the complexity of the economic landscape.   --- ## **Our 2025 perspective** Overall, we remain positive on risk assets and maintain a long position on U.S. equities. However, we expect volatility to return in 2025. Markets are pricing in “Trump 2.0”, but surprises, both positive or negative, could lead to unpredictable outcomes. With this outlook in mind, here are our top three investment themes for 2025. 1. **Beyond the Magnificent 7** The mega-cap tech trade is crowded. We recommend broadening your horizons to capture overlooked opportunities: - Focus on companies poised to benefit from AI advancements, particularly outside the tech sector. - Look at U.S. domestic stocks, especially small and mid-caps, that could benefit from lower taxes and deregulation. - Seek growth opportunities in Northeast Asia and other emerging markets, such as China, India, and Vietnam. 1. **Reimagining diversification** As correlations between U.S. Treasuries and equities increase, diversifying portfolios becomes increasingly important. Alternative assets, including hedge funds and private investments, provide opportunities for less liquid diversification. Meanwhile, macro diversifiers such as money markets, gold, precious metals, and even bitcoin continue to serve as strong defensive assets in a balanced portfolio. 1. **Crypto & digital assets** For the first time, a crypto-friendly administration in Washington could drive significant advancements in digital assets. Bitcoin, now the seventh-largest global asset, remains underrepresented in many portfolios, highlighting untapped potential. Additionally, the expanding crypto ecosystem offers compelling opportunities for forward-looking investors seeking to capitalise on this dynamic sector. --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) #### [Market Outlook H2 2026](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/market-outlook-h2-2026?hsLang=en) Time for a break or a brake? **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 03/07/2026 [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) #### [Market Insights - Q2/2026](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/market-insights-q2/2026?hsLang=en) Geopolitical crosswinds: where markets go from here **[-](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/-?hsLang=en)** | 14/04/2026 [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) #### [Market Outlook 2026](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/market-outlook-2026?hsLang=en) H1 2026 **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 02/12/2025 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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