The S&P500 has rallied 16% since the March 30 lows.
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For context: its pre-COVID multiple was ~20x. And free cash flow hasn't grown since 2021. GQG Partners — one of the world's top institutional investors — just published a full research note titled: "Not Much Alpha Left in This Bet." Their three concerns: 1. AI is cannibalizing Google's core search revenue. Over 50% of searches may now end without a single click. No click = no ad impression. 2. CapEx is exploding. Google Cloud's capital spending now exceeds the revenue it generates. $175–185B in CapEx planned for 2026. Google Cloud generated $ 59B in revenue in 2025. 3. Advertising is cyclical. When the economy slows, ad budgets are the first to be cut. The last time this happened — 2022 — the stock fell 40%. Is Alphabet priced for perfection ? Source: Thierry from arvy @ThierryBorgeat
"a confluence of factors systematically reduced available public equity year after year – more buybacks, longer private incubations, more takeprivates, low rates, ample liquidity, etc. "Today, an issuance deluge may be imminent: the three largest private companies represent >$2tn (though market cap included on indices may initially be lower flow, low-float stocks based on rules/proposals from index providers such as Nasdaq and Russell) Source: Neil Sethi
Note how Alphabet is closing in on Nvidia in the battle for the world's most valuable company Source: companiesmarketcap.com

