Richard Byworth

Managing Partner, Syz Capital


Firstly, it allows for the industry to move forward as institu-tional adoption accelerates and new exchange and custody alternatives emerge. The settlement also diminishes the systemic risk of the largest liquidity crypto exchange being taken out. The replacement CEO is a former regulator and marks a potential for a fresh start for the platform to do things the right way.

The saga also underlines the demand for Bitcoin. Many com-mentators had previously forecasted that Bitcoin could crash if Binance began to wobble. But in the face of the settlement, Bitcoin has demonstrated impressive resilience – after a brief dip off the years highs, just 48hours later it was back knock-ing at the $38,000 level.


There are two strong catalysts for the unique asset looking forward just a few months: Firstly, we believe the much antic-ipated BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF will drive mainstream retail and institutional adoption, but more importantly it unlocks trillions of dollars of 401k money. Even a few basis points implies tens of billions in inflows for an already scarce asset that keeps getting scarcer.

To that point, the second seismic demand driver is the next bitcoin ‘halving’ in April 2024. The total supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million, and as of now, over 19.5million bitcoins have already been mined, leaving less than 1.5million yet to be issued. Bitcoin’s protocol implements a mechanism known as halving, which progres-sively reduces the number of new coins introduced with each new block, meaning that that 1.5million will take another 117 years to be issued.


This is the first time in bitcoin’s history that we approach a halving with less bitcoin available on exchanges than the pre-vious halving. Exchange balances are approximately 600,000 bitcoin less than four years ago. On top of that a further 1.3mln bitcoin have been issued over that period. A quick back of the envelope calculation shows that 1.9mln bitcoin have been removed from liquid circulation in four years, we are at 3-4% adoption, less than 1% adoption by corporate balance sheets, and less than 1% adoption by nation states. And only 1.5mln bitcoin left to be mined forever.

All this against a backdrop of traditional financial market players creating a bridge into the industry. Banks the world over have been creating trusted third-party custody alter-natives, and trading services. Swiss private and cantonal banks have been active here with names such as Syz, Maerki Bauman, Zug Kantonale bank and St Gallen Kantonale bank all providing services to their clients.

Meanwhile, in the hedge fund space, the recent volatility is providing an abundance of alpha for those employing vola-tility arbitrage, futures arbitrage, mean reversion and market making strategies. This is opening a door for traditional market investors to dip their toe into an asset class bearing the same opportunities that were harvested in the golden age of hedge funds in the eighties and nineties presented through diversified, highly diligenced vehicles like SyzCrest.

We are currently living through the scaling and adoption of a new asset class, Bitcoin, alongside an emerging but volatile digital asset industry. Institutional adoption will mean plenty more short-term pain for those participants who break the rules, but this period of industry maturation will benefit the digital asset space over the long term.


This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

Read More

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks