Global stocks fell by $12 trillion in March, marking the largest single-month decline in dollar terms on record. This is distinct from the worst month in percentage terms, which remains October 2008; the difference now is simply that the market is much larger in size. 

Oil prices have surged 70% in just five weeks, the most extreme start to a year in three decades. The last comparable volatility occurred in 2020, when oversupply drove the market. Today, the situation is the opposite: tight supply is fuelling the dramatic price swings. 

Investors placed a record leveraged short bet against oil, just before geopolitical tensions sent prices soaring. In March, $977 million flowed into the inverse oil ETF (SCO), aiming to profit from falling crude prices. Instead, the funds plunged 41% as oil climbed, only briefly rising after signals of de-escalation.

This trade depends on a rapid end to the conflict, but oil remains elevated, peaking near $119 and staying around $102, far above February levels. Continued supply disruptions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, may keep prices high for months, meaning even a ceasefire may not help short traders recover. 

Two critical shipping chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb are simultaneously under threat, creating serious risks for global trade and energy flows. Oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt since the Iran conflict began, while the Bab el-Mandeb, a key Red Sea route responsible for roughly 12% of global trade, remains unstable due to ongoing Houthi threats. Saudi oil exports via the Red Sea are particularly vulnerable to potential attacks, and the Houthis’ increasing involvement in the Iran conflict further raises the risk of renewed shipping disruptions. Any escalation affecting Iranian oil infrastructure could exacerbate the situation, potentially causing widespread disruptions in global energy and trade networks.

Turkey’s gold reserves declined by 50 tonnes last week to 772 tonnes, marking the largest weekly drop since August 2018. Overall, total foreign exchange reserves have fallen $35 billion since the conflict began, down to $177.5 billion, as authorities aggressively defend the Turkish Lira amid historic FX volatility.

Additionally, a roughly 10% drop in gold prices last week caused an extra $8 billion loss in reserve value, bringing the total weekly decline to $18 billion. Turkey is burning through reserves at a historic rate. 

While global debt markets have been hit by rising energy prices and inflation since the start of the Iran conflict, Chinese government bonds have largely avoided the sell-off. They have emerged as a relative haven amid global uncertainty. 

Some companies generate $1 million in revenue astonishingly fast. For example, both Amazon and Walmart can achieve this milestone in less than one minute.