--- title: "Beneath the price: a deeper oil market disruption" description: Meanwhile, precious metals are plummeting. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Beneath the price: a deeper oil market disruption Meanwhile, precious metals are plummeting. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 03/23/2026** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/awyneken/OneDrive%20-%20Banque%20Syz%20SA/Desktop/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_260323.pdf) - - - - #### Chart #1 —  ## The oil market disruption is far worse than headline prices suggest  Oman crude oil surged to a record USD $173 per barrel on Wednesday, exceeding even the peak seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. At the same time, Dubai crude oil rose above $150, as buyers rushed to replace supplies lost following the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. This closure has effectively removed around 20% of global oil production from the market, creating the largest supply disruption in modern history. Yet benchmark prices tell a different story, Brent is trading near $115 and WTI around $95, significantly understating the severity of the shortage. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI has widened to its largest level since 2013, reflecting how the war in Iran is hitting European supply more directly. The issue is that these benchmarks mainly reflect North Sea and US conditions, not the reality of the Middle East crisis. If the strait remains closed, Western oil prices will likely rise sharply as inventories in the US and Europe decline. In short, the full impact of the oil crisis has not yet reached Western markets. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-08-59-26-2266-AM.png?width=503&height=684&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-08-59-26-2266-AM.png)Source: Global Markets, FT --- #### Chart #2 —  ## In the last 3 weeks, gold is down -14%, while silver is down -28% Despite war, oil shocks, and high volatility, precious metals are falling—an outcome that seems counterintuitive. Gold typically rises in times of uncertainty. However, it is currently being driven less by fear and more by global reserve flows. After 2022, when Western countries froze Russian reserves, many surplus nations began reducing their reliance on US Treasuries and increasing their gold holdings. Gold became a strategic reserve asset, not just a haven. Now the dynamic is reversing. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is cutting oil revenues, directly affecting countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, who are the key buyers of gold. Lower oil revenues mean smaller surpluses, reducing their ability to buy gold and potentially forcing them to sell. The impact extends further. China is facing slower growth, leading to smaller trade surpluses, weaker reserve accumulation, and lower demand for gold. Silver is declining even more sharply because about half of its demand comes from industry. As global growth slows, industrial demand weakens, pushing silver prices down faster than gold. The key takeaway is that gold is not currently reacting to fear, but to liquidity and capital flow. While the long-term outlook remains positive, in the short-term gold follows reserves don’t headline. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-00-20-2910-AM.png?width=852&height=567&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-00-20-2910-AM.png) Source: Global Markets Investor  --- #### Chart #3 —  ## Europe will soon subsidise energy again As energy prices rise, European governments are preparing to step in with subsidies. While this may seem supportive, the reality is more complex. Many of these governments contributed to the current situation by weakening their own energy security. Now, they face another challenge: most are already running structural deficits and have limited fiscal room to absorb new shocks. The likely outcome is a familiar pattern: subsidies increase, deficits widen, and policymakers come under pressure. In response, governments may raise taxes. This creates a paradox, governments provide financial relief to households, then increase taxes to fund it. In effect, households end up paying for their own support. This cycle is not limited to energy. It is also visible in healthcare, welfare expansion, and defence spending. Each crisis leads to higher deficits, increased borrowing, and eventually central bank intervention through money creation and bond purchases. The cycle then repeats itself. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-01-28-5165-AM.png?width=1004&height=668&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-01-28-5165-AM.png) Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg --- #### Chart #4 —  ## The US is now one of the largest oil exporters in the world The United States has become a major global energy exporter, with crude oil and petroleum exports reaching 3.9 billion barrels in 2025. The Netherlands is the largest buyer, importing 419 million barrels and serving as a key distribution hub for Europe. In Asia, South Korea, Japan, China, and India together account for nearly a quarter of US exports. Meanwhile, Mexico and Canada remain key partners, representing a significant share of total volumes. US oil now flows to virtually every region of the world, highlighting its central role in global energy markets. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-02-45-5833-AM.png?width=770&height=770&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-02-45-5833-AM.png) Source: Visual Capitalist --- #### Chart #5 —  ## Geopolitics is now the biggest tail risk according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey According to the latest survey by Bank of America, geopolitical conflict is now seen as the main tail risk for financial markets. Private credit ranks third, reflecting growing concerns about the stability of this fast-growing segment. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-03-30-5897-AM.png?width=874&height=456&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-03-30-5897-AM.png) Source: BofA, TME --- #### Chart #6 — ## In just the first quarter, wealthy investors have tried to pull over $10 BILLION from some of the largest private credit funds  In the first quarter alone, investors requested more than $10bn in withdrawals from major private credit funds. Firms such as Blackstone, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley have already started limiting withdrawals, approving only about 70% of requests. More updates are expected from other major players, including Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, and Goldman Sachs. Although $10.1bn is small compared to the $1.5tr direct lending market, it is significant relative to the $166bn managed by the affected funds. Private credit has been one of the fastest-growing areas in finance, especially as firms target the $9tr US retirement market. However, rising withdrawal requests in a tighter liquidity environment are starting to test the model. The key question is whether this is a temporary issue or the first sign of deeper structural weakness. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-04-26-5622-AM.png?width=912&height=606&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-04-26-5622-AM.png) Source: Financial Times --- #### Chart #7 —  ## This is not Apple, Tesla or even Nvidia. It’s the US national debt US national debt has reached a new record of $39tr and continues to rise. Unlike companies such as Apple, Tesla, or Nvidia, this figure reflects the scale of government borrowing highlighting the growing weight of public debt on the economy. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-05-01-2456-AM.png?width=812&height=915&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-09-05-01-2456-AM.png) Source: Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79  --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Bond market vs US Treasury: who will yield?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/bond-market-vs-us-treasury-who-will-yield?hsLang=en) Nothing seems to curb the 10-year Treasury yield’s rise. Meanwhile, Japan’s currency defense is drying up it’s FX reserves and the S&P 500 is hiding something important. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 14/09/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [A record US-China yield gap?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/a-record-us-china-yield-gap?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, European countries are having their own bond crisis. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 07/09/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Nvidia’s record-breaking day](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/nvidias-record-breaking-day?hsLang=en) Victoria’s Secret is back: a $100,000 investment has quadrupled since the Fashion Show’s return was announced. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 31/08/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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