--- title: "China's stock market: is a bear market rally on the horizon?" description: Abundant liquidity in the market is supporting gold and stocks and may even lead to a new bear market rally in China, while the Fed's rate cut may have minimal impact on U.S. equities. image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/W7C_241007_cover.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### China's stock market: is a bear market rally on the horizon? Abundant liquidity in the market is supporting gold and stocks and may even lead to a new bear market rally in China, while the Fed's rate cut may have minimal impact on U.S. equities. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 10/07/2024** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_240930-2.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## **A new "bear market rally" for Chinese stock market?**   Over the past two decades, China has experienced five major stock market rallies, three of which were driven by economic stimulus measures. As illustrated in the chart below, these rallies were particularly brutal, with gains ranging from 50% to 100%. The question arises: are we witnessing a similar phenomenon? ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-06-46-1410-PM.png?width=706&height=456&name=image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-06-46-1410-PM.png) Source: Gavekal --- #### Chart #2 — ## **Liquidity abundance supports gold and stock markets** The global money supply has surged significantly over the past two months. After a period of relative stability since the beginning of 2023, around $4 trillion has been injected since August, 1. This figure does not include the additional trillion in liquidity that China plans to add in the coming months. This expansion of the global money supply explains (to some extent) the recent surge in gold prices and the rally in stock markets, which are at all-time highs. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-07-50-2519-PM.png?width=641&height=461&name=image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-07-50-2519-PM.png) Source:Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald --- #### Chart #3 — ## **Fed rate cut may have limited effect on US equity markets**     Two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time since March 2020. However, unlike previous cycles where markets reacted strongly after a rate cut, this time, investors anticipated the decision by accumulating U.S. stocks well before the official announcement. This anticipation had the effect of increasing stock valuations even before the rate cut had any impact on the economy. In other words, although rate cuts have traditionally boosted stock markets, the current already high valuations might limit the extent of the stock market's rise this time around. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-08-41-1844-PM.png?width=694&height=378&name=image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-08-41-1844-PM.png) Source : David Marlin --- #### Chart #4 — ## **42% of U.S. small and mid-cap companies are unprofitable**   According to Apollo, over 40% of U.S. small and mid-cap companies are reporting losses, a level comparable to that seen during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009. The only time this proportion was higher was in 2020 and 2021. Additionally, companies in the Russell 2000 index are accumulating a debt of $832 billion. Further rate cuts could allow these “zombie” companies, which are unable to generate profits, to stay alive thanks to more favourable credit conditions. With a positive effect on the relative performance of small and mid-caps versus the S&P 500? ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-11-14-2541-PM.png?width=819&height=459&name=image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-11-14-2541-PM.png) Source : Apollo, Global Markets Investor --- #### Chart #5 — ## **U.S. debt hits an all-time high** In 2008, federal debt stood at $9.4 trillion, while U.S. GDP reached $14.7 trillion, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 64%. Today, public debt has reached $35.7 trillion, with an additional $345 billion in debt accumulated between September 27 and October 1, while U.S. GDP stands at $29 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 122%. What is the pain threshold for the bond market? ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-12-13-5633-PM.png?width=775&height=520&name=image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-12-13-5633-PM.png) Source: Global Markets Investor   --- #### Chart #6 — ## **BlackRock dominates the world** Since its IPO in October 1999, BlackRock's shares have generated an average annual return of 20.7%, far outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which have returned 8.2% and 9.7% per year, respectively, over the same period. BlackRock shares also outperformed giants such as Amazon and Microsoft. Apple and Nvidia, on the other hand, did even better. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-13-29-8754-PM.png?width=780&height=441&name=image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-13-29-8754-PM.png) Source: HolgerZ, bloomberg     --- #### Chart #7 — ## **Bitcoin ETFs absorbed all BTC production in September**   In September 2024, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs bought more bitcoin than miners produced, acquiring a total of 17,941 BTC, while mining production amounted to 13,500 BTC. BlackRock's iShares ETF saw significant growth, accumulating 366,451 BTC, while Grayscale's ETF holdings dropped to 221,191 BTC, signaling a shift in investor allocation. This growing demand underscores the increasing interest in Bitcoin ETFs, which have become a dominant force in the market. The fact that these ETFs absorbed all newly mined bitcoin, and even more, marks a shift in market dynamics that could have lasting effects on bitcoin's price and availability. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-14-53-4844-PM.png?width=526&height=572&name=image-png-Oct-07-2024-03-14-53-4844-PM.png) Source: Bitcoin magazine --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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