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Source: Bloomberg
Chart #2 —
The S&P 500 is divided into 2 groups
On one side, the Super 7 (or the Magnificent 7: Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta). On the other, the 493 stocks that make up the S&P 500 index. The performance of these 2 groups diverges significantly, both in 2022 and since the start of 2023. Indeed, the massive outperformance of the Super 7s in 2023 is in some ways a mirror image of their equally massive underperformance in 2022.
If we add up the performance of 2022 and the first half of 2023, however, we see that both groups are still in the red, with a decline of -5% for the Super 7 and -8% for the S&P 493.
Source: Vincent Galan, Bloomberg
Chart #3 —
The Nasdaq and Nikkei 225 indices were the best stock market performers in the 1st half of the year
The Nasdaq emerged as the world's leading stock market index this year (+30%), closely followed by the Nikkei 225, which climbed 27%. The broader Topix index, which focuses more on domestic banks and companies, also posted substantial gains, up 21% This was its best half-year performance since 2016.
Source: FT
Chart #4 —
The US economy continues to surprise on the upside
US economic statistics continue to exceed consensus expectations. The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index is at a 2-year high.
Source: Bloomberg
Chart #5 —
Bankruptcies soar in the US
Here's a chart that contradicts the previous one. Bankruptcy filings in the US continue to rise. The policy of very low interest rates had enabled many struggling companies to continue to survive - a phenomenon known as "zombification". With rising interest rates, bankruptcy has become inevitable for many companies.
Source: Apollo
Chart #6 —
US inflation continues to fall
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator shows that the US inflation rate is at its lowest since April 2021. The PCE deflator reached 3.8% year-on-year in May, compared with 4.3% in April and in line with consensus expectations. The core PCE deflator unexpectedly slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in May (from 4.7% previously). However, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Chart #7 —
More and more major asset managers aspire to launch a bitcoin ETF
BlackRock's recent filing with the SEC for the launch of a spot ETF on bitcoin has "created a buzz" over the past 2 weeks. We note that many major financial institutions in the US are actively engaged in efforts to facilitate access to bitcoin and other crypto-currencies. These institutions collectively manage $27,000 billion in assets.
Source: Meltem Demirors
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