--- title: Earnings season kicks off amid rising geopolitical tensions description: International stock market indices outperformed the US market during the week of 9-16 January. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) ### Earnings season kicks off amid rising geopolitical tensions International stock market indices outperformed the US market during the week of 9-16 January. Geopolitical tensions continued to impact the sentiment, as the earnings season began with key banks reporting in the US and TSMC in Asia. [**Jakub Dubaniewicz**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/jakub-dubaniewicz) **Jakub Dubaniewicz** **Tuesday, 01/20/2026** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/gcombes/Banque%20Syz%20SA/DEPT-Investment%20-%20Equity%20-%20Equity/Equity_Weekly/Equity_Weekly_1_5_December_2025.pdf) - - - - ## **The Chart of the week** **TSMC’s dominance of semiconductor manufacturing keeps growing** **![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jan-20-2026-10-03-30-4609-AM.png?width=609&height=341&name=image-png-Jan-20-2026-10-03-30-4609-AM.png)** Source: Counterpoint ## **What happened last week?**   **Global markets** The “rotation” narrative persisted last week, with the S&P 500 declining –0.4% while the MSCI AC World ex‑USA gained +1.8%. Although major indices briefly reached new record highs early in the week, momentum continued to favor smaller U.S. capitalizations as well as Emerging Markets. Sentiment was supported by “Goldilocks” economic data and the market’s notable ability to look through rising geopolitical noise - at least until the weekend, when Trump’s tariff threat related to the situation in Greenland pulled attention back to political risk. Global equity markets overall maintained a constructive tone, with the MSCI ACWI advancing as investors embraced a broadening rally. Geopolitical developments, ranging from regime change in Venezuela to renewed rhetoric concerning Greenland, generated headlines but did little to dent risk appetite. Instead, investors remained focused on the productivity narrative linked to AI diffusion and the start of the Q4 earnings season, led by major U.S. banks and TSMC in Asia. **US** all Street witnessed a tale of two markets. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 49,000 threshold for the first time, the tech-heavy Nasdaq faced headwinds from profit-taking in the "Magnificent Seven". Economic data continued to support a soft-landing thesis: December Nonfarm Payrolls came in soft at 50,000, yet the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%. This "cool but not cold" labour market, paired with in-line CPI data (2.7% YoY), keeps the Fed in a flexible position. The earnings season began with encouraging results from major US banks. Major US banks reported strong quarterly numbers, with solid net income growth, record revenues in selected segments, resilient loan and deposit trends, and no meaningful deterioration in credit quality. Analysts noted that the sector benefited from a steeper yield curve and active capital markets, despite earlier concerns related to tariff policies. The news of a potential cap on interest rates for credit cards presents a risk, but such regulation would still need to pass through Congress. **Europe** European equities ended the week near record highs, with the STOXX 600 posting its fifth consecutive weekly gain. The region benefited from renewed strength in "old economy" sectors, notably Defence and Mining, the latter supported by revived merger discussions involving Glencore and Rio Tinto. By contrast, the luxury sector faced a "perfect storm" driven by retail-side financial distress, ongoing macroeconomic challenges in China, and fading optimism around post-pandemic pricing power. Geopolitics remained in focus as several European countries issued joint statements on transatlantic trade and regional security, though markets interpreted these developments through a lens of stability rather than crisis. **Rest of the world** In Asia, Japan was the standout performer. The Nikkei 225 surged more than 5% at its peak following news of a possible snap election, which investors viewed as a precursor to further pro-stimulus policies from Prime Minister Takaichi. China delivered a more measured performance. Although inflation data showed signs of stabilisation, domestic indices were restrained by new regulatory actions aimed at curbing high-frequency trading and raising margin requirements, alongside soft consumption figures. Meanwhile, TSMC's Q4 earnings provided a crucial lift to the global semiconductor ecosystem. The company guided to strong revenue growth and increased its 2026 investment plan, easing fears of an imminent AI spending "cliff". This continued to support positive sentiment toward Taiwanese and South Korean equity indices, as well as several global technology peers. --- ## **Our view on equity** ##### **Equity asset class** > ##### **POSITIVE in the current environment** We shift to a Negative stance on government bonds. Positive global growth dynamics, price pressures in the US and profligate fiscal policies reduce the attractiveness of long-term government bonds as a potential hedge for economic downturn and increase the risk of higher long-term yields. Limited prospects of further central banks’ rate cuts and unattractive yield curve slopes at the front-end also reduce the attractiveness of government bonds on short-to-medium term maturities.   ##### **Earnings** > ##### **POSITIVE as breath to increase** Earnings remain a tailwind for equities, supported by a strong third-quarter earnings season and expectations that growth will accelerate and broaden in 2026. Technology stocks should continue to deliver robust performance, while the “old economy” is set to recover. ##### **Valuation** > ##### **NEUTRAL as US large caps remain expensive** US technology stocks remain expensive, although growth and profitability provide some support while international equities are more reasonably valued. Equity risk premia remains low in both the US and Europe. --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) #### [Central Banks Deliver on a Well-Flagged Hawkish Pivot](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/central-banks-deliver-on-a-well-flagged-hawkish-pivot?hsLang=en) Fed and BoJ hikes, an oil-driven inflation scare, and an AI-safety debate drove sector rotation across global equities over the past week. **[Jakub Dubaniewicz](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/jakub-dubaniewicz?hsLang=en)** | 21/09/2026 [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) #### [Oil, Inflation and Trade Tensions Rattle Equities as Memory Chips Hold the Line](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/oil-inflation-and-trade-tensions-rattle-equities-as-memory-chips-hold-the-line?hsLang=en) Global equities fell on oil, inflation and trade risk, while a Korea-led memory-chip rally offset losses in EM and rotated tech away from Nvidia. **[Jakub Dubaniewicz](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/jakub-dubaniewicz?hsLang=en)** | 14/09/2026 [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) #### [Payrolls Surprise and Middle East Tensions Revive the Rate Hike Debate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/payrolls-surprise-and-middle-east-tensions-revive-the-rate-hike-debate?hsLang=en) Global equities were roughly flat over the week to 4 September 2026, as a much stronger than expected US August jobs report and renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, reviving the case for a September Fed rate hike. The repricing hit European equities harder than the US, with German and French markets underperforming on rate- and energy-sensitive exposure, while banks and energy stocks outperformed globally. Within US tech, a sharp divergence emerged inside the Magnificent Seven, driven by company-specific news at Meta and Nvidia rather than a shared theme. Brazil was the standout market of the week, rallying on rate-cut expectations and firmer oil prices. **[Jakub Dubaniewicz](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/jakub-dubaniewicz?hsLang=en)** | 07/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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