--- title: The week in seven charts | Syz Group description: "Commodities roll over and bond yields move lower as\nglobal demand soften\n\nLast week saw the main equity indexes giving up a portion of the previous week’s gains, as the market now anticipates that the Fed’s fight against inflation would push the economy into recession. US inflation and rate hikes anticipation are moving lower. Bond yields and commodity prices as well. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### The week in seven charts Commodities roll over and bond yields move lower as global demand soften Last week saw the main equity indexes giving up a portion of the previous week’s gains, as the market now anticipates that the Fed’s fight against inflation would push the economy into recession. US inflation and rate hikes anticipation are moving lower. Bond yields and commodity prices as well. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 07/04/2022** | Reading time: 2min. - ![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png) - - - - [--- PDF ---](https://www.syzgroup.com/sites/default/files/document/2022-07/syz-feature-the_week_in_seven_charts-04.07_0.pdf)   ### Chart #1 - Worst-ever first half for a 60/40 portfolio Last week the S&P 500 index posted its worst first half of a year since 1970. It also happened to be the worst-ever first half for multi-asset portfolios. A US 60/40 (equities/fixed income) portfolio fell 20% through June. The last eight times the S&P 500 fell during a calendar year, bonds finished the year higher, cushioning the blow. So far in 2022, it has been very different, with stocks and bonds both declining more than 10%, something we've never seen. This double bear market also implies massive wealth destruction. Global equity and debt capital markets lost $31 trillion in the first six months of the year, the largest destruction of wealth ever recorded.   S&P 500 Down Years (1977 - 2022) [![S&P 500 Down Years (1977-2022)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_1_0-2.png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_1_0-3.png?hsLang=en) Source: Charlie Bilello   ### Chart #2 - US Economic data continue to surprise on the downside Since the end of April, US macro data have continued to disappoint. Atlanta Fed Nowcast has revised second-quarter real GDP growth lower at a very fast pace. With a -2% contraction now expected, the US economy may already meet the technical definition of a recession: two successive quarters of negative growth, following an already-negative first quarter.   Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2022: Q2 [![Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2022: Q2](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_2_0.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_2_0-1.jpg?hsLang=en) Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts   ### Chart #3 - Commodities are showing early signs of rolling over While commodities were by far the best performing asset class in the first half, more recently we have seen commodity markets weaken again as global demand may soften. Weakness in commodities includes metals, food and agriculture, and even energy markets.   Commodity prices: Copper and WTI crude oil [![Commodity Prices: Copper and WTI Crude Oil ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_3_1.png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_3_1-1.png?hsLang=en) Source: FactSet   ### Chart #4 - Yields are moving lower, not higher, for now One of the key macro numbers published last week was the US Core PCE (Price Consumption Expenditures). The index fell to 4.7% in May, its third straight monthly decline. Note that the PCE is the Fed's "preferred measure of inflation," and may have an impact on rate hike expectations. With both growth expectations declining and inflation surprising on the downside, government bond yields are moving lower. The yield on US 10-year Treasuries crashed below 3% on recession fears after the ISM June purchasing managers index, a measure of US manufacturing activity, fell to a two-year low as new orders contracted.   [![Yields are moving lower, not higher, for now](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_4.png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_4-1.png?hsLang=en) Source: Bloomberg   ### Chart #5 - Inflation expectations and rate hike expectations are moving lower One consequence is that inflation expectations are starting to tumble. US inflation break-evens are at their lowest levels since September 2021. Fed rate hike expectations are also drifting lower.   [![Inflation expectations and rate hike expectations are moving lower](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_5.png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_5-1.png?hsLang=en) Source: Boomberg   ### Chart #6 - Germany and most EU countries face a major energy crisis Electricity rates in Germany are about six times higher than in early 2021. This rise is weighing heavily on inflation and denting both consumer and business confidence. Another risk from rising energy input prices became visible last week: German utility company Uniper has applied for state aid because it is getting less cheap Russian gas. Gas prices have increased ten-fold since 2020 and German consumers face a significant price shock.   [![Germany and most EU countries face a major energy crisis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_6_0-1.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_6_0.jpg?hsLang=en) Source: Bloomberg   ### Chart #7 - Euro plunges against dollar; Swiss franc rises to parity with euro Rising energy costs threaten to push the eurozone into recession. As a consequence, traders are paring back their European Central Bank rate hike bets, leading to renewed euro weakness. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc rose to parity with euro for the first time since March. A stronger franc seems to be what the Swiss National Bank asked for... Note that the Swiss franc was the only gainer among G-10 currencies against the US dollar in June.   Key Level: Franc at parity with euro for first time since outbreak of war in Ukraine [![: Euro plunges against dollar; Swiss franc rises to parity with euro](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_7.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/picture_7-1.jpg?hsLang=en) Source: Bloomberg     #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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