--- title: Fed signals potential rate cut in September description: The Fed hints at a possible rate cut in September, Eurozone inflation ticks up slightly, and only 5% of U.S. companies currently use AI. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Fed signals potential rate cut in September The Fed hints at a possible rate cut in September, Eurozone inflation ticks up slightly, and only 5% of U.S. companies currently use AI. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Tuesday, 08/06/2024** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_240805.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## The Fed opens the door for a first rate cut in September The Federal Reserve (Fed), as expected, maintained its target for fed funds rates at 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth consecutive time on Wednesday. However, its chairman, Jerome Powell, emphasised that the first rate cut was getting closer. Here are the main takeaways from this meeting: 1. No decision has been made regarding a rate cut in September. 2. The committee remains attentive to the risks on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate (2% inflation and full employment). 3. The Fed will assess the upcoming macroeconomic data before making a decision on rates. 4. Second-quarter inflation figures have bolstered confidence that the inflation rate is moving in the right direction. 5. A rate cut that is too late could unduly weaken the economy. 6. The Fed needs to further strengthen its confidence level regarding inflation.   In other words, the Fed is clearly considering a rate cut in September. According to the prediction site Kaishi, the chances of a Fed rate cut in September are now 80%, an increase of nearly 25 points since July 1st. Since 2009, the Fed has always done what the market expected of it. Therefore, a rate cut in September seems very likely. ![W7C\_240805\_01](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_240805_01.jpg?width=284&height=166&name=W7C_240805_01.jpg) *Source: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland* --- #### Chart #2 — ## Slight rebound in inflation in the Eurozone Eurozone inflation rose to 2.6% in July, surpassing analysts’ expectations. Core inflation remained stable at 2.9%. The July increase is mainly due to higher prices for services, energy (which no longer has a deflationary effect), and food, which likely reached its lowest point. The most concerning aspect for the ECB is that the inflation rate for services, the most representative component of the domestic economy, has been stuck at around 4% for nine months and appears to be trending in the wrong direction. July’s figures complicate the ECB’s task as it considers another rate cut in September. Markets still estimate a 96% probability of a further 25 basis point reduction by the ECB at the next meeting. ![W7C\_240805\_02](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_240805_02.png?width=301&height=177&name=W7C_240805_02.png) *Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ* --- #### Chart #3 — ## September is a historically complicated month for US equity markets As shown in this chart from Bank of America (based on historical performance of the S&P 500 since 1928), September is simply the worst month of the year with an average performance of -13.5%... ![W7C\_240805\_03](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_240805_03.png?width=301&height=210&name=W7C_240805_03.png) *Source: BofA, Bloomberg* --- #### Chart #4 — ## This is why it is so difficult to beat the S&P 500 index The difference between the MEDIAN (in red) and the AVERAGE (in green) cumulative performance of US equities since 1926 is staggering... In fact, the average performance of stocks over the last 100 years has been heavily influenced by a very small number of stocks (4% of the index). Statistically, it is nearly impossible to outperform an index over time, as one would need to specifically hold this very small percentage of stocks that have beaten the index, while also avoiding the vast majority of stocks that have underperformed the index. ![W7C\_240805\_04](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_240805_04.jpg?width=301&height=158&name=W7C_240805_04.jpg) *Source: Baird, Michel A. Arouet, SpencerHakimian* --- #### Chart #5 — ## US federal debt reaches $35 trillion for the first time in history Since 2020, the United States has increased its federal debt by approximately $12 trillion. In other words, the U.S. has added $280 billion in federal debt EACH MONTH since January 2020. This means the U.S. now has about $105,000 of federal debt per capita. ![W7C\_240805\_05](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_240805_05.png?width=301&height=239&name=W7C_240805_05.png) *Source: The Kobeissi Letter*   --- #### Chart #6 — ## Only 5% of U.S. companies currently use AI According to a study by Bank of America, it seems that corporate adoption of AI is still relatively low. According to recent data, only 5% of US companies are currently using AI. This figure is comparable to other reports indicating that AI use is still in its infancy for many companies. However, the adoption rate is set to rise as more companies recognise the potential benefits of AI, such as improved productivity, reduced costs and better decision-making. ![W7C\_240805\_06](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_240805_06.png?width=301&height=252&name=W7C_240805_06.png) *Source: BofA*   --- #### Chart #7 — ## The United States leads the Olympic medal table     As shown by data compiled by Olympedia, the United States has won the most medals in the Summer Olympics since 1896. American athletes have won a total of 2,655 medals - 1,070 gold, 841 silver, and 744 bronze. ![W7C\_240805\_07](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_240805_07.png?width=284&height=284&name=W7C_240805_07.png) *Source: Statista* #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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