--- title: IFM adjusts global economic outlook with lower growth projections description: US credit card default rate hits a new record high, US inflation slows, but at a sluggish pace and the IMF revises global growth projections downwards. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/W7C_231016_i00.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. You can change your settings below to refuse the use of cookies. For more information, please refer to the [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices). Mandatory cookies Functional cookies Statistics & marketing I confirm I am not a US citizen residing in the US I confirm I am not accessing this site from the US I confirm that I am not a resident of Canada (except for Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia or Alberta). Agree and confirm ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… You chose the following profile. If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### IFM adjusts global economic outlook with lower growth projections US credit card default rate hits a new record high, US inflation slows, but at a sluggish pace and the IMF revises global growth projections downwards. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 10/16/2023** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_231016.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - ##### Chart #1 — ## The S&P 500 has never been a smooth ride 100,000 dollars invested in the S&P 500 index thirty years ago would be worth 1.7 million dollars today. The price to pay for multiplying your capital by 17? Patience and an appetite for risk. US equities have been through a lot over this period: the collapse of the LTCM hedge fund, the bursting of the internet bubble, the great financial crisis of 2008-2009, the European crisis, the covid-19 pandemic and the sharp rise in inflation since 2021. Index declines over the last thirty years have ranged from 5% to over 50%. In hindsight, each of these falls represented an opportunity to strengthen equity positions. ![W7C\_231016\_i01](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_231016_i01.jpg?width=877&height=489&name=W7C_231016_i01.jpg) source: Charlie Bilello --- ##### Chart #2 — ## Almost half of US listed companies are unprofitable While the very largest US technology companies continue to manage record profits, this is not the case for many listed companies. As a study by Goldman Sachs shows, almost 50 per cent of them are posting negative margins - in other words, losses. These companies owe their survival to the regime of very low interest rates and ample liquidity that prevailed for more than a decade. But the restrictive monetary policy that has been in place for the past two years could make the situation much more complicated for many 'zombie' companies. **Percentage of listed US companies with very positive, positive, negative or very negative margins** ![W7C\_231016\_i02](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_231016_i02.jpg?width=538&height=422&name=W7C_231016_i02.jpg) Source: GS, Michel A. Arouet --- ##### Chart #3 — ## R&D investment by the 10 largest capitalisations on the Nasdaq Over the past twelve months, Amazon has spent the most on research and development ($73 billion). Alphabet (39.5 billion) and Meta (35.3 billion) complete the podium. In terms of spending as a percentage of sales, Meta (30%) is in first place, ahead of Nvidia (27%), and well ahead of Amazon and Alphabet (both 14%). ![W7C\_231016\_i03](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_231016_i03.jpg?width=554&height=492&name=W7C_231016_i03.jpg) Source: Visual Capitalist, Stockanalysis.dot.com, www.trendlineHQ.io --- ##### Chart #4 — ## The relative performance of emerging market equities (vs. US equities) is at its lowest since 1987 While investors continue to pay relatively high valuation multiples for large-cap US technology stocks, this is not the case for emerging markets. The relative performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets versus the S&P 500 is at its lowest for 36 years. The collapse of Chinese equities and the mediocre performance of Asian equities have obviously weighed on the underperformance of the emerging index since the great financial crisis. ![W7C\_231016\_i04](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_231016_i04.jpg?width=542&height=314&name=W7C_231016_i04.jpg) Source: Bloomberg --- ##### Chart #5 — ## IMF revises global growth projections downwards On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an update of its growth projections for 2023 and 2024. The IMF has revised its forecasts downwards, due in particular to the negative effects of monetary tightening; global growth should reach 3% in 2023, compared with 3.5% in 2022. In 2024, growth should reach 2.9%. ![W7C\_231016\_i05](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_231016_i05.jpg?width=516&height=448&name=W7C_231016_i05.jpg) Source: Statista --- ##### Chart #6 — ## US credit card default rate hits a new record high American consumers are once again living well beyond their means. The default rate on credit cards is now 7.5%, the highest level since 1991. This is higher than when the dotcom bubble burst or during the great financial crisis. With lending rates in excess of 20%, many consumers are no longer able to cover their overdrafts. Note that this is the default rate for banks that are not part of the 100 largest American banks. ![W7C\_231016\_i06](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_231016_i06.jpg?width=548&height=368&name=W7C_231016_i06.jpg) Source: Game of Trades --- ##### Chart #7 — ## US inflation slows, but very slowly This was the most eagerly awaited macroeconomic figure of the week. US inflation for September continues to slow, but not as much as the market had expected. On a sequential basis, it rose by 0.4%, compared with the 0.3% expected by the consensus. Over a 12-month rolling period, the increase was 3.7% (versus 3.6% expected). Core CPI, which excludes goods such as energy and food from the reference basket, rose by 0.3% sequentially and by 4.1% over 12 months. These data are in line with expectations. The US Federal Reserve is likely to consider these figures sufficient for it not to raise interest rates further. But the inflation  rate is still far too high for the Fed's target. It is therefore highly unlikely that there will be any rate cuts in the coming months. ![W7C\_231016\_i07](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/W7C_231016_i07.jpg?width=659&height=347&name=W7C_231016_i07.jpg) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. Follow us ## **Thinking** out loud - - - - ## **Investing** with intelligence Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks #### [Weekly Market Update](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/weekly-market-update?hsLang=en) #### [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus?hsLang=en) #### [Asset Allocation Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights?hsLang=en) #### [Semi-annual Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/semi-annual-outlook?hsLang=en) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [Terms & conditions](https://www.syzgroup.com/sites/default/files/document/2021-12/001-2_en-general_terms_and_conditions_w.pdf) - [Data protection notice](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/data-protection-notice) - [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices) - [Syzgroup.com](https://www.syzgroup.com/) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA", "url" : "https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau" }, "dateModified" : "2023-10-16T16:24:08.425Z", "datePublished" : "2023-10-16T16:24:08.000Z", "headline" : "IFM adjusts global economic outlook with lower growth projections", "image" : [ "https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/W7C_231016_i00.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/ifm-adjusts-global-economic-outlook-with-lower-growth-projections", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Logo%20(1).png" }, "name" : "Syz Group" } } ```