--- title: "Mixed signals: US job market shows resilience amid Fed's policies, yet wage growth and employment drop raise concerns" description: The US job market shows mixed signals, the ECB cuts rates and Nvidia overtakes Apple's market cap! 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Mixed signals: US job market shows resilience amid Fed's policies, yet wage growth and employment drop raise concerns The US job market shows mixed signals, the ECB cuts rates and Nvidia overtakes Apple's market cap! Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 06/10/2024** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_240603-1.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## **Double-edged job market statistics** The past week saw the publication of several highly anticipated statistics on the US job market. At the start of the week, jobless claims for April came in at 8.06 million, against expectations of 8.4 million. The gap between the published and anticipated figures is relatively wide. A drop in job creation has only been observed 3 times since the year 2000, suggesting that the US job market is indeed slowing down. But on Friday, another statistic blurred the message. The BLS survey of government entities and private sector companies (yellow bars on the chart below) reported 272,000 jobs created for May, exceeding consensus estimates (+185,000). These job creations are well above those of April (+165,000). The labour market remains resilient despite the Fed's restrictive monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, the labour force has shrunk, pushing the US unemployment rate from 3.9% in April to 4.0%, the first time above 4.0% since February 2022. More bad news for the Fed (and bond markets): wage growth surprised on the upside, perhaps due to reduced labour supply, which could cause bottlenecks given still-steady job creation. Wage growth remains a hard-to-control source of inflation, rising at a rate of 4.1%, which is still far too high for the Fed. It should be noted that the household employment survey shows the opposite result to the above statistics: it reveals a sharp drop in the number of people employed, with 408,000 fewer jobs (see white bars below). Full-time jobs fell by 625,000, the biggest drop in full-time employment since December 2023, while part-time jobs rose by 286,000. Between household and establishment surveys, the figures seem to be out of sync. This makes analysis of economic data quite difficult.   ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-21-23-1390-PM.png?width=770&height=432&name=image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-21-23-1390-PM.png) Source : Bloomberg NB: The household survey includes agricultural workers, unincorporated self-employed workers, unpaid family workers and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from the establishment survey. The household survey includes people on unpaid leave among the employed. This is not the case for the establishment survey.   --- #### Chart #2 — ## **ECB cuts rates with a hawkish bias** The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points, setting the reference rate at 4.25% and the deposit rate at 3.75%. The ECB made no commitment on future rate changes, stating it will depend on upcoming economic data.The main surprise of the week was the upward revision of inflation forecasts for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2.3%) and 2025 (2.2% vs. 2%), suggesting that the ECB will maintain a relatively restrictive monetary policy, keeping key rates above neutral for the next 12 to 18 months. Following the ECB's announcement, bond yields rose slightly across all maturities. The market is now anticipating less than two rate cuts for the rest of the year, or one rate cut per quarter.   ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-22-47-3089-PM.png?width=764&height=440&name=image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-22-47-3089-PM.png) Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ --- #### Chart #3 — ## **NVIDIA reaches $3 trillion valuation and overtakes Apple as the world's 2nd largest market capitalisation** Nvidia has just surpassed $3 trillion in market capitalisation. The stock is up 155% in 2024, adding more than $1.83 trillion in valuation - Amazon's market capitalisation in 5 months. 10 years ago, Apple had a market capitalisation 53 times that of Nvidia. Today, Nvidia has overtaken Apple to become the world's second-largest listed company. Nvidia is also responsible for almost half of the S&P 500's market capitalisation increase since the beginning of the year. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-23-56-0165-PM.png?width=751&height=420&name=image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-23-56-0165-PM.png) Source: App Economy Insights   --- #### Chart #4 — ## **The $3 trillion market capitalisation club** Just three stocks - Microsoft, Nvidia and Apple - now account for 20% of the S&P 500. It's also worth noting that these three stocks are now larger than the entire Chinese stock market. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-24-50-0284-PM.png?width=764&height=430&name=image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-24-50-0284-PM.png) Source: Bloomberg --- #### Chart #5 — ## **AI at the core of major U.S. companies' priorities** The chart below shows how many times the word “AI” was uttered during the Q1 earnings conference calls of some of the world's largest companies. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-25-47-6308-PM.png?width=751&height=594&name=image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-25-47-6308-PM.png) Source : Evan, Uptrends   --- #### Chart #6 — ## **Stocks that split tend to outperform the market** According to Statista and Bank of America, companies that split their shares recorded an average performance of 25.4% in the 12 months following the announcement of the split. This is more than twice the average performance of the S&P 500 over these periods. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-26-39-5663-PM.png?width=619&height=595&name=image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-26-39-5663-PM.png) Source: Statista --- #### Chart #7 — ## **Gold's share of global international reserves rises to 17.6% in 2023, the highest in 27 years** Strong gold purchases by central banks since 2009 and rising gold prices have increased the precious metal's share of global international reserves, to the detriment of fiat currencies. By the end of 2023, gold will have overtaken the euro in terms of importance in international reserves. NB: A published report showed that China's central bank did not buy any gold last month, ending a massive 18-month buying programme that helped lift the precious metal to a record high in May. The price of an ounce fell by around 1.5% following this announcement.     ![image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-27-35-8466-PM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-27-35-8466-PM.png?width=864&height=571&name=image-png-Jun-10-2024-12-27-35-8466-PM.png) Source: WinSmart, Gainesville Coins, The Kobeissi Letter #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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