Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer

Chart #1 — 

"Sell in May and Go Away?"
Maybe not this year...

Should we follow the famous stock market adage and get rid of our shares in May? Beware, because equity market seasonality hasn't worked very well over the past decade (see chart below) and tends not to apply at all in US presidential election years. Indeed, history shows that the summer period is very strong during election years. The S&P 500 has generated average returns of 7.27% during the months of June to August in presidential election years, according to data going back to 1928. June and July are the strongest periods of the year for election years, with the S&P 500 up 75% of the time for an average return of 7.27%.

W7C_240514_01


Chart #2 — 

Rising share buybacks should help sustain US stock market rally

According to Goldman Sachs, around one-sixth of the $934 billion planned for share buybacks this year is expected to be deployed in May and June. Major share buybacks have been announced this year, notably by the tech giants. Apple approved a $110 billion share buyback, making it the largest ever in the US. This announcement follows plans to buy back Alphabet and Meta for $70 billion and $50 billion respectively. These initiatives should provide support for equity markets this year, as the Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to keep interest rates high in order to curb inflation.

W7C_240514_02

 


Chart #3 — 

Apple, the uncontested king of share buybacks

Apple has repurchased no less than $625 billion worth of its own shares over the past ten years, which is more than the market apitalization of 492 S&P 500 companies... The delisting of such a large number of shares partly explains the stocks excellent performance over the past decade.

 

W7C_240514_03

 


Chart #4 — 

Cash is king

Here are the companies with the largest cash holdings: Berkshire Hathaway ($167 billion), Google ($108 billion), Amazon ($85 billion), Microsoft ($80 billion), Apple ($67 billion) and Meta ($58 billion). At Berkshire Hathaway's latest shareholders' meeting, Warren Buffett mentioned that "I don’t mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position. When I look at what’s available in equity markets and the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find it quite attractive."

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Source: Patient Investor


Chart #5 — 

US household savings have shrunk considerably

US households have now used up all their excess savings. Current levels are worse than 2019 levels. Add to this the fact that this is happening just as the US labour market is starting to deteriorate.

 

W7C_240514_05

Source: Game of Trades


Chart #6 — 

The US will pay staggering interest
on its debt

 

U.S. net interest payments as a percentage of federal revenues are expected to reach 34% by 2054.

This means that one-third of all government revenue is expected to be devoted to servicing the national debt alone. Over the past eight years, this percentage has already doubled to around 15%. It is the highest it has been for thirty years.

Meanwhile, annualised nominal interest payments have exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in history. By the end of the year, annual interest charges could rise to $1.6 trillion if the Fed doesn't cut rates.

The US government needs lower interest rates. We expect fiscal policy to exert a strong influence on monetary policy in the US in the years ahead.

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Source: The Kobeissiletter, Peter G. Peterson


Chart #7 — 

Who are the largest holders of bitcoin?

 

MicroStrategy now owns more bitcoins than any country in the world: 214,400 bitcoins valued at over $13.5 billion.

W7C_240514_07

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

Disclaimer

This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

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