Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer

Chart #1 — 

Peak optimism? 

Analyst forecasts for S&P 500 long-term earnings growth have spiked to their highest level on record. 


Source: FactSet


Chart #2 — 

Apple reclaims the crown 

Last Friday, Apple (AAPL) overtook Nvidia (NVDA) to become the world's most valuable company, reaching $4.92tn against Nvidia's $4.86tn in early trading. 


Source: Barchart


Chart #3 — 

Semiconductors near bear market territory 

The semiconductor sector has entered a technical correction, down 16% from June's all-time high. 

Source: Barchart

 


Chart #4 — 

Refining strain 

Here is why crack spreads are surging worldwide: Russia's refining system is showing clear signs of strain.

Russian refinery throughput fell to just 3.8 million barrels per day in June, down 1.5 million bpd from the start of 2026. For comparison, refinery runs remained relatively stable at around 5.0-5.7 million bpd at the same point in 2023-2025.

Then came April 2026. Throughput collapsed and has yet to recover. The main driver appears to be Ukrainian drone strikes, which have inflicted more immediate damage on Russia's refining capacity than years of Western sanctions.

The consequences extend far beyond Russia. With fewer Russian refined products hitting global markets, diesel and other fuel supplies have tightened, driving crack spreads sharply higher. Sometimes the clearest signal is not the price of crude oil, but what refiners are no longer able to produce. 


Source:  Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg  


Chart #5 — 

Supercore CPI drops 


Supercore CPI fell 0.2%, its biggest monthly decline since COVID-19, led by drops in education and communication and transportation services. 


Source: Bloomberg


Chart #6 —

Change in margin debt 

 Total margin debt has risen by more than 40% over the past 12 months, a level previously observed near major market peaks, including the dot com bubble and the global financial crisis.


Source:  Barchart, CNBC 


Chart #7 — 

China is forcing AI prices lower  

DeepSeek V4 Flash is priced at $0.09 per million input tokens, compared with around $5 for GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.8, making it approximately 55 times cheaper. 


Source:  Lukas Ekwueme


Disclaimer

This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

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