--- title: 10 charts to remember description: "The Fed cuts rates, meanwhile Europe teeters on the brink of recession, China\nramps up stimulus, and U.S. debt surges. Developed market equities surge amid\nglobal challenges, while fixed income rallies on easing rate expectations.\nEach quarter, the Syz investment team takes you through the last 3 months in\n10 charts." image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/M10C_241007_cover-1.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. 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The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [Monthly Market Review](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/monthly-market-review) ### 10 charts to remember The Fed cuts rates, meanwhile Europe teeters on the brink of recession, China ramps up stimulus, and U.S. debt surges. Developed market equities surge amid global challenges, while fixed income rallies on easing rate expectations. Each quarter, the Syz investment team takes you through the last 3 months in 10 charts. [**-**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/-) **Tuesday, 10/08/2024** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz%20Feature-Quarter-in-10-charts_2024-04-04c.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## The Fed joins the rate cut club   The Federal Reserve has finally cut its interest rates for the first time since March 2020, beginning the long-awaited "Fed pivot". With an oversized 50-basis-point rate cut, the Fed appears to be prioritising the labour market, given the rise in unemployment in the U.S. to 4.2%, rather than maintaining its previous focus on controlling inflation. This decision reflects growing concerns about the economic slowdown and suggests the Fed is now aiming to support the broader economy by moving interest rates back to neutral levels. This global trend toward easing monetary policy is not limited to the U.S., as central banks across Europe are also shifting their stance. The Bank of England initiated its own easing cycle with a 25-basis-point cut in August. The European Central Bank followed suit in September with its second rate cut, lowering rates to 3.5%, while the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate for the third consecutive time, bringing it down by 0.25% to 1%. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-08-59-48-3773-AM.png?width=714&height=643&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-08-59-48-3773-AM.png) *Source: Reuters* --- #### Chart #2  — ## Europe on the brick of recession   Economic growth in the Eurozone began slowing in early summer 2024 and recent data confirms this downward trajectory. While Q2 brought a modest 0.2% q/q GDP growth, largely driven by net exports, the September flash composite PMI fell into contraction territory at 48.9, highlighting the decline in manufacturing activity and its spillover into the services sector. Germany, once the economic powerhouse of the Eurozone, has become its weakest link. Its industrial sector struggles with declining demand from China, increased competition from cheaper Chinese exports, and energy supply challenges worsened by sanctions on Russia. Economists are now expecting that Germany's economy will stagnate at best for the remainder of 2024. Meanwhile, in France, the brief economic boost from the “Olympic effect” in August has faded away, leaving the country, along with Germany, facing economic contraction. Italy and Spain have shown resilience, with strong service sector activity helping to offset the broader European slowdown. Still, the overall growth in the Eurozone remains weak and underperforms expectations​. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-02-43-2144-AM.png?width=673&height=548&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-02-43-2144-AM.png) *Source: Swiss Re Institute*   --- #### Chart #3  — ## US Debt explodes Total U.S. debt explodes again, reaching $35.7 trillion on October 1, up $345 billion from September 27. This figure becomes more alarmingwhen looked at in its relationship to US GDP. In 2008, the U.S. federal debt was $9.4 trillion while the U.S. GDP was $14.7 trillion, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 64%. Now, with public debt sitting at $35.7 trillion and GDP at $29 trillion, the debt-to-GDP ratio has skyrocketed to 122%, making the U.S. the country with the 6th highest ratio in the world. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-09-14-9533-AM.png?width=782&height=525&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-09-14-9533-AM.png) *Source: Global Markets Investor, FRED* --- #### Chart #4 — ## Chinese authorities “go big”   The story of the end of the quarter was the deployment of China’s massive stimulus package. After years of stagnation and a slow recovery post-pandemic, Chinese authorities finally decided to "go big" to stabilise the struggling property market and support the country's economy. A key component of the plan is the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cutting mortgage rates for individual borrowers and lowering the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 0.50 percentage points. Additionally, the minimum down payment for second-home purchases has been reduced from 25% to 15%. Further cuts to the RRR, potentially between 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, are being considered for later this year, though these adjustments will not apply to smaller banks. Lastly, the government has proposed a $113 billion market stabilisation fund, representing less than 1% of China's total stock market capitalisation, to bolster the financial sector. These measures triggered an immediate 4.3% surge in the CSI 300 index after the stimulus package announce and Asia ex-Japan was the top performing major region, returning 10.6% over the quarter. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-10-37-6181-AM.png?width=616&height=472&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-10-37-6181-AM.png) *Source: Yahoo!finance* --- #### Chart #5 — ## Developed market equities surge despite global challenges   During the third quarter of the year, developed market equities delivered a strong 6.5% return. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe, along with a revision in U.S. employment data and concerns about the "Yen Carry Trade" posed challenges during the quarter. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 maintained its upward momentum, adding 5.9% over the quarter. Small-cap stocks led the way with a notable 9.5% increase, while global REITs delivered a remarkable 16.2% gain. European markets, however, showed more muted growth. The UK posted a modest 2.3% increase, while the broader European market, excluding the UK, edged up by 1.6%. The Eurozone’s economic recovery continues to struggle, with Germany’s manufacturing sector facing headwinds from weak Chinese demand and increased competition from lower-cost Chinese exports. In Asia, Japanese stocks dropped 4.9%, hit by the Bank of Japan’s July rate hike and Governor Ueda’s signals of more hikes to come. A weak U.S. labour market report and narrowing U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials led to a sharp yen appreciation and the unwinding of carry trades. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-11-55-1952-AM.png?width=955&height=679&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-11-55-1952-AM.png) *Source: J.P. Morgan*   --- #### Chart  #6 — ## Chart #6: Investors All-in Sentiment in the equity market has continued to pick up throughout Q3 and is now through the roof. U.S. equity futures positioning by investors (excl. market-makers) just hit a net long of approx. $290 billion, the most on record. This net long positioning by investors has more than doubled since the beginning of the year, and currently sits at a level over twice as high as those seen during previous peaks in early 2018 and 2020. This sentiment is further highlighted by the Fear & Greed Index reaching levels of “extreme greed” for the first time since March. With U.S. household stock allocation also hitting new highs, investors appear to be all-in on stocks. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-13-07-0890-AM.png?width=584&height=435&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-13-07-0890-AM.png) *Source: The Kobeissi Letter* --- #### Chart #7 — ## Bulls continue charging ahead Bulls are thriving as Q3 has been favourable to equity markets. The quarter ended on a high note, with the S&P500 posting a green September for the first time in 5 years. The bull market also appears to continue broadening (a prediction we made for 2024), with 337 stocks outperforming the S&P500 in Q3. Overall, 394 stocks were positive in Q3, with the index closing at 5.3% for the quarter. With tech stocks struggling, it was value stocks that took the lead in the third quarter. US value stocks managed to outperform growth by 7% points, with small caps rallying in anticipation of lower rates to come. *![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-14-21-3140-AM.png?width=699&height=463&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-14-21-3140-AM.png)* *Source: All Star Charts* --- #### Chart #8 — ## Fixed income rally on easing rate expectations Fixed income markets performed strongly in Q3 2024, largely driven by the anticipation of lower interest rates, and increasing confidence of a soft landing for the economy. The changing outlook on interest rates boosted government bonds, with U.S. Treasuries returning 4.7%, while European sovereign bonds gained 4.0% during the quarter. Investment-grade (IG) credit spreads narrowed slightly by the end of the quarter, resulting in a 6.3% quarterly return. High-yield bonds followed a similar trend, leading to gains of 5.3% in the U.S. and 3.5% in Europe. Emerging market debt saw a strong rally, gaining 6.1% and ranking near the top of fixed income sector performances year-to-date. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-15-18-6149-AM.png?width=950&height=624&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-15-18-6149-AM.png) *Source: J.P. Morgan* --- #### Chart #9 — ## Energy slumps, precious metals shine In the third quarter of 2024, commodity markets experienced relatively muted performance overall, returning just 0.7%. Amid ongoing concerns about the global economy, energy markets took a hit: Brent Crude oil prices fell by 17% largely driven by weakening demand in China, compounded by OPEC+ easing production cuts later in the year. Meanwhile, the precious metals market performed well. Gold’s new all-time highs rally continues, soaring over 11% over the quarter. This rally is now supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, which historically has led to strong gains in the following months. Similarly, silver rose more than 6%. Copper saw only a marginal increase of approximately 1% in Q3 2024, following a mid-year surge driven by rising demand from the energy transition and power needs for AI-related data centers. As a metal widely used in various industrial processes and products, copper prices faced pressure from concerns about declining demand for industrial materials in China. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-16-02-1209-AM.png?width=752&height=569&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-16-02-1209-AM.png) *Source: Morningstar* --- #### Chart #10 — ## A more cautious crypto market After posting spectacular gains at the start of the year following the approval of its first spot ETFs, bitcoin performed rather modestly in the third quarter, returning 5.24%. This relative stagnation can be explained by a slowdown in investor enthusiasm after the initial euphoria linked to the approval of ETFs. Meanwhile, ether suffered losses of over 20%. Interest in ether also waned after the launch of Ethereum ETFs, which failed to generate the hoped-for enthusiasm, and investors preferred to turn to safer havens in the face of market uncertainty. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-16-51-5433-AM.png?width=780&height=572&name=image-png-Oct-08-2024-09-16-51-5433-AM.png) *Source: Morningstar* --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Monthly Market Review](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/monthly-market-review) #### [10 charts to remember: Q1 2025](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/10-charts-to-remember-q1-2025?hsLang=en) The first quarter of 2025 has been a particularly turbulent one for the financial markets: US equities had their worst relative performance in 23 years, Chinese markets rebounded, gold reached new highs and economic and geopolitical uncertainties fuelled volatility. Here are 10 charts that highlight the first three months of the year. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 08/04/2025 [Monthly Market Review](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/monthly-market-review) #### [10 charts to remember - October](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/10-charts-to-remember-october?hsLang=en) Despite recession concerns, economic growth showed resilience, while equities retreated in October and inflation continued its slow decline. Nuclear energy was poised to power the future of AI, while the market suggested buying "Trump" and selling "Kamala” when referring to U.S. Election bets. Here are 10 charts to review what happened in the markets during October. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/11/2024 [Monthly Market Review](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/monthly-market-review) #### [The month in 10 charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-month-in-10-charts-july-2024?hsLang=en) Softening U.S. labour market signals potential rate cuts Weakening U.S. labour market data hints at potential rate cuts, as inflation moves below the 3-4% range it held for the past year, and volatility resurfaces. Each month, the Syz investment team takes you through the last month in 10 charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 09/08/2024 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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