--- title: "The problem with US debt: money is no longer \"free\"" description: Annual US debt interest spending is surging sharply, while Japan faces increasing inflation expectations alongside a persistent decline in the yen's value. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### The problem with US debt: money is no longer "free" Annual US debt interest spending is surging sharply, while Japan faces increasing inflation expectations alongside a persistent decline in the yen's value. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 04/29/2024** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_240429.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## **Disappointing Q1 US GDP figures** The wind of stagflation is blowing through the US GDP figures for Q1. Real GDP grew at a rate of 1.6% in Q1, below all forecasts. The main driver of growth - personal spending - grew at a slower-than-expected pace of 2.5%. But a much-watched measure of underlying inflation rose at a faster pace than forecast (+3.7% vs. +3.4%). These figures displeased equity and bond markets. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-31-17-7369-AM.png?width=940&height=262&name=image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-31-17-7369-AM.png) Source: Bloomberg  --- #### Chart #2 — ## **Financial gravity** If we divide the S&P 500's performance by the Fed's balance sheet since the great financial crisis of 2008, we see a virtually flat curve. This indicates that stock price growth since 2008 has been virtually non-existent, with the exception of the increase attributable to monetary expansion. The correlation coefficient between central bank quantitative easing and stock index prices is close to 1... ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-35-09-8431-AM.png?width=903&height=457&name=image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-35-09-8431-AM.png) Source: Bloomberg --- #### Chart #3 — ## **The Bank of Japan is trapped** Japan is experiencing rising inflationary expectations, while at the same time suffering from a continued devaluation of the yen. This reflects the dilemma of an economy weighed down by excessive debt, requiring constant accommodative monetary policies in the face of structural inflationary pressures. Although this phenomenon is more pronounced in Japan, it illustrates a global trend towards depreciation of fiat currencies. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-36-14-6412-AM.png?width=562&height=435&name=image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-36-14-6412-AM.png) Source: Crescat Capital, Tavi Costa --- #### Chart #4 — ## **The alarming climb in interest on US debt** Annual spending on US debt interest is rising almost parabolically, now reaching $1.1 trillion. To put this in perspective, less than three years ago, this annual expenditure amounted to $450 billion. That's a 144% increase while total U.S. debt has jumped by more than $11 trillion since 2020. Even in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, annual interest expenditure was "only" $450 billion. With interest rates rising and debt levels reaching record highs, the U.S. is paying the price for decades of budget deficits and rising debt. Problem: Money is no longer "free"...   ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-37-14-9286-AM.png?width=750&height=514&name=image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-37-14-9286-AM.png) Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter --- #### Chart #5 — ## **The "Bitcoin Sign Guy"** In July 2017, one man gained notoriety by "photobombing" Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Secretary, with a "Buy Bitcoin" sign. Recently, he sold that same notepad for 16 bitcoins, equivalent to more than $1 million, to a buyer known by the pseudonym Justin, or "Squirrekkywrath". ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-38-08-9983-AM.png?width=880&height=393&name=image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-38-08-9983-AM.png) Source: Neil Jacobs, Bloomberg --- #### Chart #6 — ## **Ferrari's unbelievable profitability** How many cars do the different brands need to sell in order to generate the same profit from the sale of a single Ferrari? Tesla needs to sell an average of 27 cars, Renault 106. Incredible, isn't it? No wonder Ferrari's share price has soared since its IPO. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-38-55-7370-AM.png?width=633&height=780&name=image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-38-55-7370-AM.png) Source: Michel A.Arouet --- #### Chart #7 — ## **Drivers of long-term stock market performance** What is the main driver of long-term stock market performance? Let's look at 4 periods: 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years. In the short term, the valuation multiple is crucial. Over longer periods, the importance of the multiple diminishes, while revenue growth and margins gain in importance. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-39-49-8933-AM.png?width=602&height=600&name=image-png-Apr-29-2024-09-39-49-8933-AM.png) Source:The Future Investors, Morgan Stanley #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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