Introduction
Ultra-short-term options, known as ‘Zero Day Options’ (or 0DTEs), are options that expire on the day they are purchased. Unlike traditional options, which can last from a few days to several months, 0DTEs allow investors to bet on market movements over very short periods. For the time being, they mainly concern the major stock market indices, but there is a growing desire to extend them to large caps such as Nvidia or Tesla, which could become a reality in 2025. But what are the risks? Valérie Noël, Head of Trading at Banque Syz, takes a closer look.
What are the advantages of these famous zero day options?
Used mainly by high-frequency traders and retail investors, these options offer the prospect of almost immediate and relatively high profits, but with an equally high level of risk. The idea is to exploit intraday variations in indices to generate quick profits - a tactic that particularly appeals to those looking to capitalise on sudden movements.
These options have been hugely successful since they first appeared on the markets. Is this still the case?
Since their launch in 2022, 0DTEs have been an impressive success, sometimes accounting for as much as 50% of the total volume of options on the S&P 500, according to JPMorgan data. This success continues to this day, although there are some nuances. For example, when the S&P 500 fell 3% on 7 August, investors preferred longer-term options, seeing them as a more reliable hedge against prolonged volatility. The share of 0DTE options in the volume of options traded fell to 26% during this crisis, compared with an annual average of 48%. This phenomenon shows that, despite their popularity, these ultra-short options are not seen as an ideal hedging tool in stressed market conditions.
The original fear was that the extreme volatility of these options would disrupt the proper functioning of the indices concerned. The verdict?
0DTEs are inherently volatile, and some experts fear that they could, in specific circumstances, affect the stability of major indices such as the S&P 500. So far, the disruptions have not been as pronounced as some had feared, but caution is still warranted. Some analysts warn that these options have the potential to amplify volatility in the event of a market crisis. For example, the combination of strong take-up of 0DTEs and other products such as 0DTE ETFs could trigger a volatility crisis similar to the ‘Volmageddon’ of 5 February 2018. For the record, that day was marked by a sudden spike in market volatility that resulted in the loss of more than 90% of the value of some short-volatility ETP products. In other words, if these products are used disproportionately in panic situations, they could exacerbate market movements rather than stabilise them.
There is now talk of extending these assets to private companies such as Nvidia or Tesla. Is this really a good idea?
Unlike indices, which are diversified by nature, the shares of these companies are more sensitive to sudden fluctuations. The 0DTE applied to individual stocks could significantly increase the volatility of these securities, especially for companies already known for their sensitivity to market movements, such as Tesla. A spike in volatility could lead to instability not only in their share price, but also in the markets' perception of them - a crucial factor for large-cap companies that need to maintain investor confidence and a degree of stability. This raises the question of the appropriateness of offering this type of option on individual high-risk securities.
At a time when short-termism is already the target of criticism, how is this expansion of ultra-short-termism perceived?
This type of option feeds strategies focused on quick gains and increases volatility, which can make markets more fragile. Critics argue that this accentuates excessive speculation, to the detriment of a long-term view, posing challenges for both companies and investors over the long term. Ultimately, the perception of this trend towards the ultra-short term is mixed: it meets the needs of speculators but worries those who fear that markets are becoming increasingly prone to instability.
Haven't we opened Pandora's box with zero day options, a source of future devastating flash crashes on the markets?
Because of their speed and high leverage, these options could indeed trigger flash crashes in certain circumstances. For example, if a critical mass of investors decides to sell or buy 0DTEs in a panic, this could trigger chain reactions in the market. With the rise of high-frequency trading technologies, the risk of snowball effects is heightened, underlining the importance of increased regulation and oversight of these products. The authorities will probably need to take a closer look at this segment to ensure that innovation does not compromise the overall stability of the financial system.
Disclaimer
This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.
Related Articles
The 2024 season is coming to an end. What an eventful year it has been: the Magnificent 7 rally, the Bitcoin halving, Tesla's Cybercab reveal, geopolitical tensions and the US election. Here are ten stories to remember.
Below are the top 10 events and surprises that could impact financial markets and the global economy in the New Year. These are not forecasts, but potential macro-economic, geopolitical or market events that are not anticipated by the financial markets. We also try to assess the probability of occurrence (high, medium, low) of each of them.
Argentina's Global X MSCI ETF (ARGT) is so far the best-performing country ETF of 2024, with record inflows last week. President Javier Milei's pro-capitalist reforms may have played a role in this surge.