Brazilian elections kick off soon and for the moment, there are two candidates clearly far ahead, recent polls have shown. As could be expected, these are current president Jair Bolsonaro, a right-winger and the left wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The first round will take place on Oct. 2, if no one wins more than 50% of the vote, a runoff is scheduled for Oct. 30.

Lula has been leading the polls for a long time but the gap between the former president and current president Bolsonaro is narrowing. On Monday, an FSB poll showed Lula’s advantage down from 11%  to 9%, and polls from Ideia on Wednesday and Atlas on Thursday came out with a slightly smaller gap of 8% (Figure 1).

However, the third favorite candidate in the polls Ciro Gomes is closer to Lula in terms on the political spectrum and is likely to support him in the event of a second round.

Therefore, at this stage, a Lula victory appears to be the most likely scenario.


Voting intention for presidential election (First round)
Source: Multiple pollsters, J.P. Morgan
Political program
Below are the main points of the two candidates’ agenda:
Political program


If Lula wins, his public spending program should be beneficial to domestic demand but could raise concern about the suitability of the Brazilian debt, with a potential negative impact on the Brazilian real.

On the other hand, if Jair Bolsonaro is reelected, the status quo is likely to prevail.

However, it is very hard to implement the entire political program due to multiple factors that can arise during the mandate, and each implementation remains subject to congressional agreement.


Risk and recent developments

Democracy at risk ?

  • Recent comments of the current president about the reliability of the election system raises a crucial question - Will Jair Bolsonaro accept the results if he loses or will we see a similar situation as when Donald Trump lost the US election ?
  • Brazil’s last coup, in 1964, led to a brutal 21-year military dictatorship. “The middle class supported it. Business people supported it. The press supported it. And the U.S. supported it,” said Luís Roberto Barroso, a Supreme Court justice and Brazil’s former elections chief. “Well, none of these players support a coup now.”

The first debate revealed some of the candidates’ weaknesses

  • The first debate took place last Sunday, August 28, with an under par performance from President Bolsonaro, as he insulted women during the debate and seemed not to know that hunger has increased in the country with the recent rise in inflation.
  • On the other hand, Lula tried to avoid questions about corruption in his party despite having previously admitted that some missteps occurred in previous Workers’ Party administrations.


Potential impacts
Potential impacts


This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

Read More

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks