Over the last century, immense progress has been made in eradicating undernourishment. While this is cause for celebration, we are now faced with another challenge: the growing prevalence of obesity. This is not just a health crisis, but a complex socio-economic problem that affects various aspects of society. The struggle to lose weight is often wrongly attributed to a lack of discipline. However, recent research highlights a more nuanced reality: obesity is an addictive disorder, influenced by cravings for fatty or sugary foods and underpinned by neurological factors. The hypo- thalamus, which plays a key role in our body's reward system, functions differently in people suffering from obesity, as it does in addictive disorders. This disruption affects com- munication between the hypothalamus and adipose tissue, resulting in poor appetite regulation.

According to certain projections, around 51% of the world's population will be obese or overweight by 2035. It should also be remembered that obesity worldwide has tripled since 1975. This veritable epidemic is not just a health problem; it also has major economic repercussions. Obesity is associ- ated with over 200 diseases and is expected to cost society a staggering $4,000 billion a year by 2035, a figure compa- rable to the financial impact of the worst year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The obesity drugs market is at a turning point in its evolution, responding to the growing obesity epidemic with both promise and challenge. In terms of market size and growth, the sector is poised for significant expansion, with an estimated annual growth rate of 30-40% for potential sales of obesity drugs between 2022 and 2030. This growth should be driven in particular by the introduction of effective new treatments, a better understanding of the complexities of obesity and increasing demand for effective weight management solutions. By the end of 2023, the GLP-1 market was worth around $36 billion.

What's more, growing public and healthcare provider awareness of the risks associated with obesity is encouraging a proactive approach to obesity treatment. This is important, as currently only 2% of obese patients in the US receive medical treatment.

The market for anti-obesity drugs is dominated by a few well-established pharmaceutical companies, known for their extensive research capabilities and strong drug portfolios. Companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are notable examples, having developed breakthrough drugs that have set new standards in the treatment of obesity. Both companies have also seen significant increases in their share prices in recent years. Their valuation multiples show substantial premiums over other pharmaceutical stocks.

Technological advances, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, are poised to revolutionise the obesity drug development process. AI has the potential to streamline drug discovery, making it faster and more cost-effective. By analysing large datasets, AI can identify new drug targets, predict drug efficacy and safety profiles, and optimise clinical trial design.

The obesity drugs market offers substantial investment opportunities, mainly due to the demand for more effective, safer and patient-friendly weight management solutions, which should fuel continued innovation and expansion in this sector. In addition, the diversity of the market, ranging from drugs targeting metabolic pathways to those focusing on appetite suppression, offers investors a wide range of investment options.

Opportunities in this field are not without risk. These include the high costs and uncertainties associated with drug development. The road from research to marketable product is long, costly and fraught with pitfalls. Clinical trials can produce unexpected results, and regulatory approval is never guaranteed. Market acceptance is another major risk. The efficacy and safety profile of a new drug strongly influences its commercial success.