A map which shows inflation in Europe
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So much so that the World Bank is now classifying Russia as a "high-income country." On Monday 1st of July, the World Bank announced it has upgraded Russia from an upper-middle-income country to a high-income country, according to a report from the financial institution's economists. "Economic activity in Russia was influenced by a large increase in military-related activity in 2023," World Bank economists wrote in their report. Last year, Russians earned $14,250 per person on a gross national income basis. The World Bank's upgrade confirms reports from Russia that suggest the growth is primarily driven by wartime activities that generate demand for military goods and services, making some sectors winners in Russia's wartime economy. Russia's trade jumped by nearly 7% last year, while activities in the financial sector and construction grew by 6.6% and 3.6%, respectively. This boosted Russia's real GDP — which is economic growth adjusted for inflation — by 3.6%. The development has made some poor Russians better off financially, complicating any calculus over how to end the war.
US government spending as a % of GDP is now ~43%, in line with THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS. This is just 1 % below World War II levels. Only the COVID crisis saw higher expenditures as a share of GDP of 54%... Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
However, 2 months net revisions were NEGATIVE with -110k. Moreover, government employment rose by a whopping 70k while PRIVATE employment with 136k was below estimates. Unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0% due to higher labor participation rate. Wage rose 3.9% YoY in line w/estimates. Bottom-line: these numbers seem to confirm our thesis that the US job market is NORMALIZING hence reinforcing the disinflation trend which will ultimately enable policy makers to NORMALIZE. More to come from our Chief Economist Adrien Pichoud... stay tuned... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ