Here's how the SP500 performs during election years $SPY Buy the May dip for the summer rally?
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* Trump w/ Republican Sweep = 25% probability; S&P +3% * Trump w/ Divided Government = 30% probability; S&P +1.5% " Harris w/ Democratic Sweep = 5% probability; S&P -3% * Harris w/ Divided Government = 40% probability; S&P -1.5% Source: Carl Quintanilla on X, Goldman Sachs
In the last three election cycles, we've seen risk-off behaviour before the vote, followed by a strong rally in the weeks that follow. This year’s pattern is shaping up similarly, will history repeat? Source: TrendSpider @TrendSpider
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi