--- title: If you want to understand why silver is hitting $100/oz in 2026, stop looking at the news and start looking at the 1-year silver swap minus US interest rates. description: "In a \"sane\" market, this line stays above zero. It’s called Contango. 📈 It means:\n\nThere’s plenty of silver to go around.\n\nNo one is panicking.\n\nYou pay a small premium to hold it later because of storage and insurance costs.\n\nBut right now? We aren’t in Contango. We aren’t even in \"normal\" Backwardation.\n\nWe are in EXTREME BACKWARDATION. 📉🔥\n\nWhen that line drops below zero, the math flips. The market is effectively saying: “We need your silver so badly that we will literally PAY YOU to sell it to us today and buy it back later.”\n\nWhat does this tell us?\n\nThe Vaults are Bleeding: LBMA and COMEX inventories are hitting decade lows.\n\nIndustrial Desperation: AI chip manufacturers and EV giants aren't waiting for \"better prices\"—they are buying everything that isn't bolted down.\n\nThe Great Decoupling: The \"paper price\" on a screen is becoming a fantasy. The price of a real bar in your hand is the only thing that matters.\n\nWhen lease rates for silver stay higher than cash interest rates, you aren't looking at a \"bubble.\" You’re looking at a physical shortage.\n\nThe shorts are being squeezed. The vaults are being drained. \n\nDoes it mean the silver rally 🚀 has further to go???\n\nSource: Karel Mercx\n@KarelMercx\nBloomberg" image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Jan-28-2026-11-11-49-0547-AM.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 28 Jan 2026 - - - #### If you want to understand why silver is hitting $100/oz in 2026, stop looking at the news and start looking at the 1-year silver swap minus US interest rates. In a "sane" market, this line stays above zero. It’s called Contango. 📈 It means: There’s plenty of silver to go around. No one is panicking. You pay a small premium to hold it later because of storage and insurance costs. But right now? We aren’t in Contango. We aren’t even in "normal" Backwardation. We are in EXTREME BACKWARDATION. 📉🔥 When that line drops below zero, the math flips. The market is effectively saying: “We need your silver so badly that we will literally PAY YOU to sell it to us today and buy it back later.” What does this tell us? The Vaults are Bleeding: LBMA and COMEX inventories are hitting decade lows. Industrial Desperation: AI chip manufacturers and EV giants aren't waiting for "better prices"—they are buying everything that isn't bolted down. The Great Decoupling: The "paper price" on a screen is becoming a fantasy. The price of a real bar in your hand is the only thing that matters. When lease rates for silver stay higher than cash interest rates, you aren't looking at a "bubble." You’re looking at a physical shortage. The shorts are being squeezed. The vaults are being drained. Does it mean the silver rally 🚀 has further to go??? Source: Karel Mercx @KarelMercx Bloomberg [#Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) ![If you want to understand why silver is hitting $100/oz in 2026, stop looking at the news and start looking at the 1-year silver swap minus US interest rates.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Jan-28-2026-11-11-49-0547-AM.jpg) ![If you want to understand why silver is hitting $100/oz in 2026, stop looking at the news and start looking at the 1-year silver swap minus US interest rates.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Jan-28-2026-11-11-49-0547-AM.jpg) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) #### [Uranium miners are down 45% while uranium sits near $90, close to its highs.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/uranium-miners-are-down-45-while-uranium-sits-near-90-close-to-its-highs?hsLang=en) Last time miners got crushed while the metal held up was spring 2025… The Uranium Miners ETF nearly tripled in nine months Source: Katusa Research **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [Commodities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) #### [Diesel is trading at over $200/barrel...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/diesel-is-trading-at-over-200/barrel?hsLang=en) People say oil is the lifeblood of the economy... But the backbone of our economy runs on diesel: - ~80% of US freight by weight - ~80% of global trade moves by sea - Most farming - Most mining Source: Lukas Ekwueme **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 17/09/2026 [Commodities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) #### [COPPER JUST HIT A RECORD HIGH](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/copper-just-hit-a-record-high?hsLang=en) LME copper has surged above $14,530 per tonne, climbing more than 68% since “Liberation Day” in April 2025. Copper is often called “the metal with a PhD in economics” because demand is closely tied to global growth, construction, electrification and industrial activity. And right now, Dr Copper is sending a powerful signal: Strong economic momentum Rising inflationary pressure Booming demand for electrification and AI infrastructure Copper isn’t just rallying. It may be warning that the global economy is running hotter than expected. Source: Bianco Research **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 08/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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