28 Jul 2023

US 10-year treasury yields are trading back above 4% and this most likely due to a batch of strong US hard data. Indeed, the US economy remains "red hot":

1) Initial jobless claims were expected to rise modestly last week - after hitting 2-moth lows the prior week - but instead they tumbled further to 221k (the lowest since Feb 2023) - TOP LEFT CHART 2) Continuing Claims also dropped to 1.69mm Americans - the first time back below 1.7mm since Jan 2023... - TOP RIGHT CHART 3) US GDP Grew An Unexpectedly Hot 2.4% In Q2 Despite Fed's Aggressive Tightening Campaign - BOTTOM LEFT CHART 4) Orders for Durable Goods printed a 4.7% MoM surge (almost 4x the expected 1.3% rise) - that is the biggest monthly rise in durable goods orders since July 2020 - BOTTOM RIGHT CHART Can the #fed really afford to put an end to their #interestrates hike cycle? Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge


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