On April 8, the S&P 500 was down 15% in 2025, the 4th worst start to a year in history.
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The BIST 100 has fallen roughly 10–11%, including a 6% drop that triggered a market-wide circuit breaker. The key concern is no longer valuation—it is whether investors can get their money out. Pusula Portföy disclosed delays in meeting some fund redemptions. When withdrawals rise, managers need cash and often sell their most liquid holdings—not necessarily their weakest ones. That is how otherwise healthy stocks get dragged into the selloff. New fund regulations, 37% domestic interest rates and expensive oil are adding pressure. Meanwhile, a hawkish Fed could strengthen the dollar and reduce demand for Turkish assets. This is not yet a full currency crisis: the lira has remained far more stable than equities. But the risk is clear. Once a market starts pricing exit risk, fundamentals become secondary. The turning point will come when redemptions are met and forced selling finally ends. Source: EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm
Turkey's BIST 100 index crashed 6% yesterday, putting it on track for its worst 2-day drop since March 2025. A major Turkish asset manager failed to meet investor redemption requests, sparking fears of a broader liquidity crisis across the country's entire fund industry. Nearly every stock in the index fell yesterday. The index has now crashed more than 11% in just the last 6 days.
Historically, the higher the inflation when the Fed begins to hike, the worse equities have performed. The faster the tightening cycle, the worse equities have performed. Source: David Marlin, UBS, Factset

