--- title: Strategy $MSTR was up 5% yesterday. description: "With $BTC closing the quarter above $105k, it means that MSTR quarterly income is likely to be above $12 billion. As a consequence, Strategy has officially qualified for consideration for S&P 500 inclusion in September. \nIs the S&P 500 front running starting? \n\nHere's what you need to know as highlighted by My Top 5 Crypto @mytop5crypto on X\n\n📈 1. Q2 2025 Profit Surge (~$22B+)\n•The company is expected to report an unrealized gain of around $22.7 billion on its BTC holdings for Q2 2025 potentially the largest quarterly profit in its history.\n•This gain emerges from its nearly 600,000 BTC stash, acquired at an average cost around $66K per coin.\n•Thanks to a recent FASB accounting change, these fair value gains are now included in net income, unlike prior quarters which showed losses despite rising Btc prices.\n\n📊 2. S&P 500 Inclusion: Poised, But Not Guaranteed\nWhat Needs to Happen for Inclusion:\n•A company must:\n1.Have a market cap above ~$20.5 billion.\n2.Maintain sufficient float and liquidity.\n3.Post positive GAAP net income in the latest quarter and cumulatively over the past four quarters.\n•Strategy currently satisfies the first two metrics. The missing piece was profitability, but Q2’s record gain may close that gap.\n•Analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% chance of S&P inclusion if Bitcoin holds above ~$95,240 through June 30. The company did maintain that threshold through the quarter’s end.\n\n✅ Potential Catalysts:\n•Index fund inflows: If Strategy joins the S&P 500, passive funds (like SPY) must buy in pushing demand and share price higher.\n•Broader impact on BTC exposure: It could cement Strategy as a mainstream BTC proxy within traditional portfolios.\n\n⚠️ Key Risks:\n•Highly tied to BTC: Volatility in BTC directly impacts its earnings and eligibility; a significant correction could destabilize earnings.\n•Unrealized gains only: Booked on paper via fair value accounting, but not actual cash unless they sell.\n•Margins & core biz stagnant: Its BI and analytics division still shows declining revenue and a hefty operating expense buildup." image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Jul-01-2025-03-01-53-3740-PM.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 1 Jul 2025 - - - #### Strategy $MSTR was up 5% yesterday. With $BTC closing the quarter above $105k, it means that MSTR quarterly income is likely to be above $12 billion. As a consequence, Strategy has officially qualified for consideration for S&P 500 inclusion in September. Is the S&P 500 front running starting? Here's what you need to know as highlighted by My Top 5 Crypto @mytop5crypto on X 📈 1. Q2 2025 Profit Surge (~$22B+) •The company is expected to report an unrealized gain of around $22.7 billion on its BTC holdings for Q2 2025 potentially the largest quarterly profit in its history. •This gain emerges from its nearly 600,000 BTC stash, acquired at an average cost around $66K per coin. •Thanks to a recent FASB accounting change, these fair value gains are now included in net income, unlike prior quarters which showed losses despite rising Btc prices. 📊 2. S&P 500 Inclusion: Poised, But Not Guaranteed What Needs to Happen for Inclusion: •A company must: 1.Have a market cap above ~$20.5 billion. 2.Maintain sufficient float and liquidity. 3.Post positive GAAP net income in the latest quarter and cumulatively over the past four quarters. •Strategy currently satisfies the first two metrics. The missing piece was profitability, but Q2’s record gain may close that gap. •Analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% chance of S&P inclusion if Bitcoin holds above ~$95,240 through June 30. The company did maintain that threshold through the quarter’s end. ✅ Potential Catalysts: •Index fund inflows: If Strategy joins the S&P 500, passive funds (like SPY) must buy in pushing demand and share price higher. •Broader impact on BTC exposure: It could cement Strategy as a mainstream BTC proxy within traditional portfolios. ⚠️ Key Risks: •Highly tied to BTC: Volatility in BTC directly impacts its earnings and eligibility; a significant correction could destabilize earnings. •Unrealized gains only: Booked on paper via fair value accounting, but not actual cash unless they sell. •Margins & core biz stagnant: Its BI and analytics division still shows declining revenue and a hefty operating expense buildup. [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Strategy $MSTR was up 5% yesterday.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Jul-01-2025-03-01-53-3740-PM.jpg) ![Strategy $MSTR was up 5% yesterday.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Jul-01-2025-03-01-53-3740-PM.jpg) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) #### [Indonesian stocks plunge -12%, the most since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/indonesian-stocks-plunge-12-the-most-since-the-asian-financial-crisis-in-the-late-1990s?hsLang=en) MSCI weighs removing Indonesia from its global benchmarks, says it no longer merits EM status Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 16/10/2026 [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) #### [BTFD ?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/btfd?hsLang=en) The 3x Long Semiconductor ETF $SOXL is on pace for its largest ever week of net inflows - Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 16/10/2026 [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) #### [Coreweave $CRWV does not represent the whole of NeoCloud.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/coreweave-crwv-does-not-represent-the-whole-of-neocloud?hsLang=en) Balance sheet check: • $CRWV — $35.07B debt | $5.52B cash • $NBIS — $8.55B debt | $8.04B cash • $IREN — $7.71B debt | $5.90B cash Source: FreeFromMatrix **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 16/10/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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