Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer

Chart #1 — 

Labour market continues to cool down

 

For the first time in the last 4 years, the number of unemployed people exceeds the number of jobs opening in the US. This change underlines significant slowdown in labour demand creating a stark contrast to the peaks of the “Great Resignation” era of 2021 and 2022. With this steady decline in job openings and a simultaneously increasing unemployment rate, this signals a transition into a more competitive labour market with restricted career agility and stronger employer levies in hiring negotiations.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


Chart #2 — 

Housing market in Spain is booming

 

Home sales are quickly approaching record high territories, closing in on the ones seen before the 2008 financial crisis driven by the lasting supply and demand imbalance. On the supply side, only100,000 apartments are built annually, representing just one third of the required amount to meet market needs. Furthermore, on the demand side, robust economic growth, tourist booms, and rising migration are intensifying competition for available properties. As a result, the housing price index now stands just 3.2% below its pre-crash peak in 2008.

Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

 


Chart #3 — 

September is historically the WORST month for US and global stocks

 

Looking at the data from the past decade, the S&P 500 and MSCI All-Country World Index have averaged a -2% return during the month of September. With stocks falling 4 of the last 5 Septembers and the steepest drop exceeding 9% in 2022, September is the historically weakest month for global equities. This recurring phenomenon is referred to as the ‘September Effect’.

Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg

 


Chart #4 — 

The “Sydney Sweeney” effect

American Eagle $AEO shares just had their best day in history gaining 37.9%. The US based clothing and accessories retailer declared its partnership with Sydney Sweeney as its “best” advertising campaign to date. This surge reflects the renewed investor confidence, with trading volume spiking as markets react to the brand’s strong momentum.

Source: CNBC, Barchart

 

 


Chart #5 — 

Superior earnings growth as one of the main drivers of US dominance in the global stock market

This chart from Goldman Sachs underscores the remarkable dominance of the US over the past 25 years. Ever since the peak preceding the global financial crisis, US corporate profits soared by 166%, clearly outperforming any other regions. In sharp contrast, the Eurozone has seen marginal growth, with profits in the same sectors rising only by 8%, highlighting a striking disparity in performance.

Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs


Chart #6 —

A new natural gas pipeline between Russia and China

Russia and China have approved the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project but have yet to finalise pricing terms, Gazprom announced on Tuesday, highlighting President Xi Jinping’s continued defiance of Western pressure to scale back ties with Moscow.

The pipeline, expected to deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually from the Yamal Arctic gas fields, crossing Mongolia and arriving in China, strengthens Beijing’s diversification in energy sources while reducing its reliance on US liquefied natural gas. Unlike previous lines tapping in Asia-facing reserves, this new route redirects gas that was once destined for Western Europe straight into China.

After years of negotiations, Gazprom’s strategic pivot towards China now appears firmly locked in place. 

Source: Reuters, Brian McDonald @27khv 


Chart #7 — 

Tesla’s Robotaxi app ranks #1 in the Travel category on the Apple App store

Tesla’s Robotaxi app has already overtaken Uber on the App Store, taking the #1 spot in the travel category. Strikingly, over 99% of current users are still not able to access its full functionality. This surge in downloads underscores the immense anticipation surrounding Tesla’s autonomous services, signalling a strong potential demand once the platform officially launches.

Source: Ali Mirzaei @AliMirzaei0 on X 


Disclaimer

This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

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