The fixed-income landscape is shifting as U.S. Treasury yields drop, the UST-Bund spread collapses, and EM credit markets navigate widening spreads and political risks—setting the stage for a crucial month of central bank decisions.

Global fixed income markets remained volatile as Treasuries yields hit 2025 lows, ECB rate cut expectations waver, and China's bond yields spike, hinting at a potential economic rebound.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data briefly sent rate cut expectations tumbling before weak retail sales and PPI data reversed the move. Meanwhile, European bonds reacted to GDP surprises, while emerging markets saw sharp divergences—Ukrainian bonds rallied on peace talk hopes, but Mexican debt widened amid political tensions.

With long-term U.S. real yields hitting cycle highs near 2.5%, the Trump administration’s initiatives aim to restore fiscal credibility and lower borrowing costs—but execution risks remain high. Meanwhile, global central banks and markets react to inflation surprises, BOE rate cuts, and deepening trade tensions.

January saw global bond markets rally despite Trump’s tariff shock, the Fed’s cautious stance, and the ECB’s fifth rate cut—while EM bonds outperformed, fueled by easing U.S. rates and strong technicals.

Markets navigate a complex landscape marked by the Bank of Japan's rate hike to 0.50%, Trump's forceful return to monetary policy debates, and European credit spreads reaching multi-year lows, setting the stage for heightened volatility ahead.

Softer inflation data sparks a global bond rally, Japanese yields hit multi-year highs, and credit markets rebound with resilience, shaping an optimistic start to 2025.

In the first weeks of 2025, U.S. Treasury yields hit new highs, credit markets stay steady despite record issuance, and emerging markets showcase resilience with tightening spreads.

In 2024, U.S. Treasuries underperformed cash, while high-yield credit and emerging market bonds delivered exceptional returns—setting the stage for pivotal shifts in 2025.

Fed's surprise (very) hawkish stance sends 10-year US Treasury yields soaring above 4.5% - the highest since May 2024 - setting the stage for an uncertain 2025.