Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

Volatility returned across fixed income markets last week as soft economic data, rising inflation expectations, and looming U.S. tariffs forced central banks into cautious mode — with rate expectations shifting, credit spreads widening, and high yield flashing early signs of stress.

|

31/03/2025

Amid dovish signals from the Fed and an expected SNB rate cut, bond markets diverged —European yields surged on fiscal expansion, Japanese long bonds hit historic highs, and EM resilience was tested by political and inflationary shocks.

|

26/03/2025

Rising policy uncertainty is shaking up global fixed income markets—U.S. high-yield spreads surpass Europe for the first time since 2021, German yields surge on fiscal expansion, and central banks face tough choices amid inflation risks and slowing growth

|

17/03/2025

Global fixed income markets saw historic moves last week, with German yields posting their second-largest weekly surge on record, the ECB delivering another rate cut, and U.S. rate expectations shifting higher.

|

10/03/2025

The fixed-income landscape is shifting as U.S. Treasury yields drop, the UST-Bund spread collapses, and EM credit markets navigate widening spreads and political risks—setting the stage for a crucial month of central bank decisions.

|

04/03/2025

Global fixed income markets remained volatile as Treasuries yields hit 2025 lows, ECB rate cut expectations waver, and China's bond yields spike, hinting at a potential economic rebound.

|

24/02/2025

Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data briefly sent rate cut expectations tumbling before weak retail sales and PPI data reversed the move. Meanwhile, European bonds reacted to GDP surprises, while emerging markets saw sharp divergences—Ukrainian bonds rallied on peace talk hopes, but Mexican debt widened amid political tensions.

|

18/02/2025

With long-term U.S. real yields hitting cycle highs near 2.5%, the Trump administration’s initiatives aim to restore fiscal credibility and lower borrowing costs—but execution risks remain high. Meanwhile, global central banks and markets react to inflation surprises, BOE rate cuts, and deepening trade tensions.

|

10/02/2025

January saw global bond markets rally despite Trump’s tariff shock, the Fed’s cautious stance, and the ECB’s fifth rate cut—while EM bonds outperformed, fueled by easing U.S. rates and strong technicals.

|

03/02/2025

Markets navigate a complex landscape marked by the Bank of Japan's rate hike to 0.50%, Trump's forceful return to monetary policy debates, and European credit spreads reaching multi-year lows, setting the stage for heightened volatility ahead.

|

27/01/2025

1 2 3 4 5

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks