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In just ten days, the ECB will unveil its latest policy decisions, potentially starting with a modest rate cut of 25 basis points. While this initial step is anticipated, the path beyond remains clouded in uncertainty, highlighting the unpredictable economic landscape we find ourselves navigating.



Despite a recent less hawkish stance from the Fed and emerging signs of a weakening US job market, last week's inflation figures suggest a cautiously improving outlook for fixed income investments. However, ongoing challenges such as increased supply, diminished foreign demand, and a persistently inverted yield curve continue to pose risks.



A week of sharp movements in U.S. Treasury yields reflects a broader market recalibration, as fresh economic data and Fed rhetoric temper expectations for rate cuts, casting new shadows on fixed income outlooks.



The Bank of England (BoE) is set to release its crucial monetary policy decisions this Thursday, a pivotal event with implications that could reverberate across global markets.



The latest FOMC meeting delivered a mixed message that caught markets off guard. Chair Powell acknowledged enduring inflation challenges while outlining a dovish path forward with an anticipated shift towards monetary normalization by year-end coupled with a reduction in quantitative tightening starting June 1st. This dual approach prompts questions about the Fed's strategy to remain restrictive yet assist the Treasury with an unprecedented supply surge (#monetization).



This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve as it unveils its latest monetary policy decisions, faced with the complex challenge of addressing an uptick in inflation amidst signs of an economic slowdown. This comes in the wake of a significant shortfall in 1Q US GDP, further complicating the Fed's policy trajectory as it navigates between sustaining growth and controlling price levels.



Global government bonds endured another tough week, weighed down by central banks' hesitance to swiftly normalize monetary policies, solid economic data, and intensifying geopolitical tensions. Amid these headwinds, the perception of fixed income as an unloved asset grows stronger. Consequently, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index has fallen 4.25% year-to-date, suffering its harshest start in over three decades, second only to 2022.



Following unexpectedly high U.S. inflation data for March, the ECB has taken a decisive step with its latest monetary policy decisions. Indicating a readiness to initiate rate cuts sooner and potentially more aggressively than the Federal Reserve, the ECB is responding to the diverging economic paths between the Eurozone and the U.S. This strategic divergence underscores the ECB's intention to tailor its policy measures to the unique economic conditions within the Eurozone.



Market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 have been adjusting over recent weeks, a trend solidified by the latest job report, which has now pushed the anticipated timing of the first rate cut to July from June, with fewer than three cuts expected for the year. Adding a layer of caution, Federal Reserve member Kashkari has suggested that rate cuts may not be necessary if inflation doesn't continue to decrease…



As we wrap up Q1 2024, the fixed income landscape presents a study in contrasts. While government and investment-grade corporate bonds experienced some setbacks, high-yield and emerging market segments emerged with commendable gains. This period was notably influenced by persistent inflation concerns, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and an uptick in US Treasury offerings.



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