The summer seems sweet for bond market which just received a welcome boost from the latest US CPI released below expectations. The market is now priced more than 90% chance to get a rate cut in September.

With job market challenges potentially hastening Federal Reserve rate cuts before the elections, and looming expansive fiscal promises exerting pressure on long-term yields, the stage is set for significant movements in the US bond landscape.

Amid a mix of cooling economic indicators and heightened electoral drama, the bond markets have entered a summer period marked by cautious optimism and strategic recalibrations, setting the stage for a quarter shaped by both policy expectations and political outcomes.

The fixed income landscape quietly navigates through a sea of persistent economic and political uncertainties, marking a subdued yet tense beginning to the summer.

Executive Summary: The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on June 20th with expectations set for maintaining the current Bank Rate amid recent economic and inflationary developments. Despite a strong initial performance in June, the UK government bonds have stagnated since the last BOE meeting. • Watch This: The focus is on the number of MPC members supporting a rate cut (currently 2 out of 9) and any forward guidance regarding future rate adjustments. • Market Strategy: Preference for the short end over the back end of the UK government yield curve continues, as GBP strengthens amidst differing economic dynamics between the US and UK.

Last week could have wreaked havoc on the U.S. bond market with CPI/PPI data and the Fed's decisions, but inflationary pressures are easing and the job market appears to be normalizing—a perfect mix for bond performance. However, Europe's outlook is darkening with a snap election in France.

• Political and fiscal uncertainty: the Rassemblement National's (RN) gains in the European elections introduce political and fiscal uncertainty into France's fixed income market. Key risks include potential policy shifts towards increased public spending, undermined investor confidence, and heightened market volatility. • Market reactions: immediate market reactions have already seen selloffs in bonds, with increased yields on French government bonds (OATs) and a steepened yield curve. Foreign investors are particularly concerned about capital outflows and the broader economic implications within the Eurozone. • Credit rating downgrade: the recent S&P downgrade highlights the need for careful monitoring of France's credit rating and its impacts on the fixed income market. • Future risks: if the RN performs similarly in the upcoming legislative elections, the risk to France's bonds could intensify, driven by potential shifts in fiscal policy and sustained political uncertainty

As the ECB and BoC initiate rate reductions of 25 basis points, contrasting sharply with the U.S.'s robust job market and steady rates, the world turns its eyes to the upcoming FOMC meeting to gauge the potential implications of this growing transatlantic policy divergence.

As the ECB gears up for its imminent policy meeting, expectations are high for a rate cut—the first since March 2016. Yet, the journey beyond this initial step is fraught with uncertainty, as Europe grapples with fluctuating inflation and complex economic signals, highlighting the volatile terrain central banks continue to navigate.

Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to embark on a new phase of its monetary policy: normalisation. After maintaining very restrictive rates to combat higher-than-target inflation, the ECB is poised to ease this restrictiveness. The first rate cut, expected next week, comes 266 days after the last rate hike, closely aligning with the historical average between cycles. Based on recent comments from ECB members, the rate cut is almost a certainty. However, the path to the terminal rate, which should be the neutral rate—which neither stimulates nor restrains the economy—will be long and winding.