A near end to the central bank rate cut cycle, some major divergences in sovereign rates and broadly tighter credit and EM spreads

A “not so hawkish” Fed rate cut and ECB Schnabel’s comments drove a yield curve bear steepening last week.

A shift in the 2026 central bank outlook contributes to driving rates higher, as fiscal policy supports growth and inflation prospects across all major regions

A quasi-certain Fed rate cut in December, the end of the QT program and a rebound in sentiment toward credit and EM Debt lifted bond markets last week

A repricing of Fed rate cut odds pushes USD yields lower, while credit spreads widen

Doubts on a Fed December rate cut and concerns on the debt-fueled AI capex cycle drive rates higher and credit spreads wider