--- title: "Campbell’s tomato soup: the inflation detective" description: Inflation remains Americans’ top concern while Swiss inflation hit zero. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/iStock-481679012.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. You can change your settings below to refuse the use of cookies. For more information, please refer to the [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices). Mandatory cookies Functional cookies Statistics & marketing I confirm I am not a US citizen residing in the US I confirm I am not accessing this site from the US I confirm that I am not a resident of Canada (except for Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia or Alberta). Agree and confirm ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… You chose the following profile. If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Campbell’s tomato soup: the inflation detective Inflation remains Americans’ top concern while Swiss inflation hit zero. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 12/08/2025** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/awyneken/OneDrive%20-%20Banque%20Syz%20SA/Desktop/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_251208.pdf) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## The tomato soup price index One of the simplest ways to show currency debasement is by looking at the price of Campbell’s tomato soup. Rather than relying on complex estimates and substitutions, it’s just a historical record of what the exact same can of soup can cost over time. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-23-10-7371-AM.png?width=940&height=618&name=image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-23-10-7371-AM.png) Source: The Long View @ HayekAndKeynes --- #### Chart #2 — ## Inflation remains the main issue for Americans and… Donald Trump The chart below—courtesy of Jim Bianco—shows Trump's overall approval rating (black) and his approval rating on various issues. The green line is his approval rating on inflation. It's at the lowest of his presidency, and far lower than everything else, even the economy (brown). Inflation is the biggest issue according to polls. So how is cutting rates and pumping up the stock market going to fix this? ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-24-58-3221-AM.png?width=940&height=705&name=image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-24-58-3221-AM.png) Source: Bianco Research --- #### Chart #3 — ## Meanwhile in Switzerland, inflation rate hit… ZERO   Swiss inflation flatlined in November. Just days before the SNB’s final rate decision of 2025, Switzerland delivered a surprise: consumer prices were unchanged year-on-year. That’s zero inflation. For investors, the message is clear. Core inflation has slipped to its weakest level in more than four years, making the SNB’s 0.4% forecast for this quarter effectively unattainable. The headline number looks alarming, but it still doesn’t mean the SNB will cut rates back into negative territory next week. The real focus is the 2026 inflation forecast. If the SNB lowers its current 0.55% projection, that will be the meaningful signal for markets. Meanwhile, the franc remains stubbornly strong. Despite soft inflation and speculation about future negative rates, the CHF is holding firm. The SNB may prefer a weaker currency to help lift inflation, but we do not expect the franc to depreciate much. The bottom line: low inflation is back in the spotlight for Switzerland’s safe-haven currency. The key to watch is the SNB’s forward guidance, not just the rate decision. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-25-55-8577-AM.png?width=940&height=554&name=image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-25-55-8577-AM.png) Source: Bloomberg --- #### Chart #4 — ## Germany’s economy continues to struggle In Germany, Chancellor Merz is facing mounting pressure as business leaders warn the country is in “free fall.” Peter Leibinger, head of the influential BDI industry group, warned that every month without real structural reforms costs Germany jobs and prosperity—and steadily erodes the government’s capacity to act in the future. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-29-49-7047-AM.png?width=940&height=622&name=image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-29-49-7047-AM.png) Source: Bloomberg --- #### Chart #5 — ## Japan’s 30-year yield hits a record - a warning shot for the US? Japan’s 30-year bond yield has surged to 3.37%, the highest level on record. This isn’t just a local story—it raises an uncomfortable question for Washington as well. If the US doesn’t get its deficit and debt spiral under control, this chart may be a preview of what’s coming next. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-30-33-8651-AM.png?width=905&height=611&name=image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-30-33-8651-AM.png) Source: Charlie Bilello --- #### Chart #6 — ## OpenAI, the biggest money-losing startup ever OpenAI may well keep raising enormous amounts of capital and eventually build products that reshape the world. But right now, no startup in history has operated with losses anywhere near this magnitude. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-31-27-4312-AM.png?width=940&height=659&name=image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-31-27-4312-AM.png) Source: Deutsche Bank  --- #### Chart #7 — ## The cost of using AI is collapsing J.P. Morgan just sent a clear warning: the cost of using AI models has collapsed. That’s great news for the spread of AI across every industry, but it’s a potential problem for the companies building the large foundational models—big labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. The threat is simple: commoditisation. Cheaper AI accelerates adoption and fuels innovation at the application layer, but falling costs also signal a race to the bottom. As model development starts to plateau, margins will get squeezed, and whatever pricing power these labs still have will erode quickly. According to JP Morgan, the shift in value is moving up the stack. The foundational model providers are starting to resemble internet service providers, that is, essential infrastructure but not where the real money or differentiation sits. They supply the powerful “pipes,” yet the sticky, high-margin value increasingly belongs to the applications built on top of those pipes. It’s the same trap the telecom industry fell into. Huge investments in 3G, 4G, and 5G reshaped the world, but the underlying connectivity became a commodity. New upgrades rolled out but never stayed exclusive for long. AI labs may face the same fate: enormous, world-changing investment costs, followed by a rapid slide into commoditisation before they can truly earn the returns their current valuations imply. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-32-21-9162-AM.png?width=940&height=660&name=image-png-Dec-08-2025-08-32-21-9162-AM.png) Source: JP Morgan  --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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