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Hawkish Fed sends stocks & bonds lower
Global equities recorded a second week of heavy losses after the Fed revealed that they expected official short-term interest rates to continue going sharply higher over the next several months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to new intraday lows since late 2020, while the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite managed to stay slightly above their bottoms in mid-June 2022. The VIX index, so-called fear gauge, rose sharply at the end of the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index underperformed for the second consecutive week and briefly fell to a level more than one-third below its January record high.
The two-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose above 4.10%—its highest level since October 2007—and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield jumped briefly to 3.77%—its highest mark since November 2008. The STOXX Europe 600 Index ended the week down 4.37%, dropping to the lowest levels in more than a year. Yields on German 10-year government bonds rose to fresh decade highs while UK gilt yields jumped sharply on the prospect of escalating public debt and a sharp increase in interest rates after the government slashed taxes by the most since 1972 to support the economy. The UK pound fell to USD 1.09—a 37-year low. The RBA, SNB and BoE lifted interest rates while Eurozone business activity contracted for a third consecutive month in September as the economic downturn deepened. Cryptocurrencies tumbled.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.