WEEKLY SUMMARY: Bond Yields, Bitcoin & Black Gold Bounce
US stocks recorded another week of gains, bringing the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 Index to new all-time highs and marking the 12th weekly advance out of the last 13 for the latter. The gains were relatively broad, although the small-cap Russell 2000 Index remained nearly 20% below its all-time intraday high. More US macro data have been beating estimates. The U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in Q4. The S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in higher than expected, with the manufacturing PMI hitting 50.3 in January, well above expectations. US Treasury yields were all up on Friday but mixed on the week with the long-end underperforming. . Outside the US, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 3.1% higher on encouraging corporate results. The ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged at record highs and reiterated that monetary policy would stay at “sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary” to bring inflation down to the 2% target. China’s announcement of additional stimulus measures. While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) retained its ultra-accommodative stance, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.6% over the week. Chinese equities advanced after Beijing stepped in with forceful measures to support the economy. The blue-chip CSI 300 gained 1.96 while the Hang Seng Index advanced 4.2%. Improving US macro data and tensions in the Middle East pushed WTI to its best week since September, with its highest weekly close since the first week of November. Bitcoin surged back above $42k on Friday.
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Thanks to a rally on Friday, US blue chips stocks recorded a 4th consecutive weekly gain despite growing tensions in the Middle East and the dockworkers’ strike at Eastern seaports. Escalating Middle East tensions sent oil prices to their highest level in about a month, benefiting energy shares. The S&P 500 pulled back sharply (-1.38%) on Tuesday, as Iran fired nearly 200 missiles directly at Israel. While many of the missiles were intercepted, there were several hits in the southern and central parts of the country and threats of “more devastating attacks” if Israel responded. Markets stabilized on Wednesday, however, perhaps because worst-case scenarios failed to materialize.