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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Mega-cap tech stocks melt-up despite hawkish Fed
US equity performance was mixed over the week as large-caps indices moved to intraday highs while small-caps and an equally weighted version of the S&P 500 Index recorded a modest loss. It was the busiest week of the Q4 earnings reporting season, with several releases from heavily weighted tech giants driving investors’ sentiment. Meta was the biggest winner of the week, up 20% on Friday. Meanwhile, Regional banks suffered their worst week since May 2023. On Wednesday, the Fed left short-term interest rates unchanged, as it was widely anticipated, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that he didn’t think it’s likely that the Fed will cut rates in March. As a result, futures markets are now pricing in only a 20.5% chance of a rate cut in March, down from 47.7% the week before. Chances of a rate cut seemed to diminish further on Friday, after the Labor Department reported that employers had added 353,000 nonfarm jobs in January, nearly double consensus estimates, while November’s and December’s gains were also revised higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose in the wake of Friday’s jobs report but still ended lower for the week. Outside the US, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended the week roughly flat. Japan’s stock markets rose over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index gaining 1.1%. Stocks in China retreated as downbeat economic data and property sector headlines fueled investors’ pessimism about the growth outlook. Crude Oil tumbled.
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US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.