WEEKLY SUMMARY: Bonds, Big-Tech, Bitcoin & Banks battered
US stocks were mostly lower for the week, as investors weighed upside surprises in inflation data and signs of moderating consumer spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average held up better than other indices and reached a record high on Wednesday before falling back to end the week. Energy shares outperformed on the back of higher oil prices, while technology shares lagged due to weakness in NVIDIA and other chipmakers. On the macro side, US retail sales rose 0.6% in February, missing expectations. The US CPI rose 0.4% in February, in line with consensus expectations, but core prices (less food and energy) rose a tick more than expected, also by 0.4%. The PPI rose 0.6% MoM in February, roughly double consensus estimates and the most in six months. The data appeared to weigh on hopes that low inflation or even deflation in producer prices would eventually flow down to prices paid by consumers. Inflation weighed on US bonds, as the US 10-year yield touched its highest intraday level (4.32%) since February 27. The STOXX Europe 600 Index added 0.3%, notching an eighth consecutive weekly gain. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index lost 2.5% as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might soon end its negative interest rate policy. The dollar surged this week - as BoJ chatter picked up - with its best week since mid-January. Bitcoin ended the week only marginally higher (up around 3%), exhibiting high volatility. Crude oil surged on the week, breaking out of its range to its highest since early November.
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US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.