WEEKLY SUMMARY: 'Powell Put’ sparks surge in stocks, bonds & the dollar
Stocks moved higher for the week, pushing the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite to new records, as investors welcomed news that the Fed is still anticipating three interest rate cuts later in the year. A late rise helped NVIDIA reach a record high on Friday and lift the company’s market cap near USD 2.4 trillion. The week’s macro data arguably supported hopes that the economy was continuing to expand without reigniting inflation pressures. February existing home sales surprised most observers by jumping 9.5%. The news from the Fed helped drive a decline in longer-term Treasury yields over the week. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended near a record high, climbing 1.03%. PMI surveys showed that the output of goods and services in the eurozone came close to stabilizing in March. The BoE kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% for a 5th consecutive time, although the 8–1 vote in favor appeared to send a more dovish signal. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly reduced borrowing costs by a 25 basis point to 1.5%. Japanese equities surged (+5.6% for the Nikkei 225 index) despite the Bank of Japan’s raising interest rates for the first time since 2007. Chinese equities retreated as concerns about the property sector slump offset optimism about better-than-expected economic data. Gold ended the week around unchanged, despite a huge spike intraweek to a new record high. Spot bitcoin is back at $64,000. The dollar roared back to six week highs.
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US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.