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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Worst week of 2024 for the Dow, Oil & Gold soared
The US large-cap indexes pulled back from record highs, as the S&P 500 recorded its worst week since the start of the year (and the Dow the worst YTD). On the week, all the majors were red with Small Caps and The Dow being the worst performers. The market’s performance also narrowed again, with growth stocks faring better than value shares. Energy stocks soared this week (to a record high) - the only sector to end green - while Healthcare and Real Estate lagged. VIX saw its biggest weekly surge since August 2023. Stocks moved lower following the release of the March ISM manufacturing reading on Monday, which came in well above expectations and indicated expansion—if barely—for the first time in 16 months. The Friday US jobs report showed that employers added 303,000 jobs in March, well above expectations. Encouragingly, the solid gains came with only a modest increase in average hourly wages, from 0.2% in February to 0.3% in March. US Treasuries yields jumped on the week, led by the long-end. The 10Y yield hit 4.4% while the 2Y pushed up to 2024 YTD highs and closed at its highest yield since November. Hawkish comments by Fed members didn’t help. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 1.19% during the holiday-shortened week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slumped 3.4%. In commodities, gold had another huge week, rallying to a new record high above $2330 (spot). Oil prices also surged, with Brent topping $90 and WTI topping $87.50 this week, as geopolitical tensions are on the rise.
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US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.