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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Worst week of 2024 for the Dow, Oil & Gold soared
The US large-cap indexes pulled back from record highs, as the S&P 500 recorded its worst week since the start of the year (and the Dow the worst YTD). On the week, all the majors were red with Small Caps and The Dow being the worst performers. The market’s performance also narrowed again, with growth stocks faring better than value shares. Energy stocks soared this week (to a record high) - the only sector to end green - while Healthcare and Real Estate lagged. VIX saw its biggest weekly surge since August 2023. Stocks moved lower following the release of the March ISM manufacturing reading on Monday, which came in well above expectations and indicated expansion—if barely—for the first time in 16 months. The Friday US jobs report showed that employers added 303,000 jobs in March, well above expectations. Encouragingly, the solid gains came with only a modest increase in average hourly wages, from 0.2% in February to 0.3% in March. US Treasuries yields jumped on the week, led by the long-end. The 10Y yield hit 4.4% while the 2Y pushed up to 2024 YTD highs and closed at its highest yield since November. Hawkish comments by Fed members didn’t help. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 1.19% during the holiday-shortened week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slumped 3.4%. In commodities, gold had another huge week, rallying to a new record high above $2330 (spot). Oil prices also surged, with Brent topping $90 and WTI topping $87.50 this week, as geopolitical tensions are on the rise.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.