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Stocks, bonds & cryptos retreat on rates fears
US equity markets gave back a portion of the previous week’s strong gains after Saint Louis Fed’s President James Bullard appeared to dampen hopes that inflationary pressures had peaked. “The idea that inflation has peaked is…not statistically really in the data at this point,” Bullard told the Wall Street Journal, while stating that he was likely to vote in favor of another 75-basis-point increase in the Fed target rate at the next FOMC policy meeting. Tech and communications stocks underperformed within the S&P 500 Index, with the latter dragged down by a sharp decline in Facebook parent Meta Platforms. Trading was subdued while volatility spiked on Friday as USD 2.3 trillion in options expired. Some upward surprises in the week’s US economic data (retail sales, industrial production, jobless claims) may have fueled rate fears, even as they offered hope that the economy would avoid a recession. The US 10-year yield spiked to near 3.0% for the first time since July 21. Shares in Europe pulled back as Eurozone inflation hit a record 8.9% in July while German PPI rose 37.2% from a year earlier, driven by strong increases in natural gas and electricity costs. Japanese shares were solidly higher as the yen weakened to JPY 136.7 against dollar. China’s stock markets posted a loss for the week in reaction to weak economic data and elevated levels of COVID cases. Cryptos were hammered lower as the week progressed with ETH and BTC down around 12%. The dollar strengthened.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.