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Stocks, bonds & cryptos retreat on rates fears
US equity markets gave back a portion of the previous week’s strong gains after Saint Louis Fed’s President James Bullard appeared to dampen hopes that inflationary pressures had peaked. “The idea that inflation has peaked is…not statistically really in the data at this point,” Bullard told the Wall Street Journal, while stating that he was likely to vote in favor of another 75-basis-point increase in the Fed target rate at the next FOMC policy meeting. Tech and communications stocks underperformed within the S&P 500 Index, with the latter dragged down by a sharp decline in Facebook parent Meta Platforms. Trading was subdued while volatility spiked on Friday as USD 2.3 trillion in options expired. Some upward surprises in the week’s US economic data (retail sales, industrial production, jobless claims) may have fueled rate fears, even as they offered hope that the economy would avoid a recession. The US 10-year yield spiked to near 3.0% for the first time since July 21. Shares in Europe pulled back as Eurozone inflation hit a record 8.9% in July while German PPI rose 37.2% from a year earlier, driven by strong increases in natural gas and electricity costs. Japanese shares were solidly higher as the yen weakened to JPY 136.7 against dollar. China’s stock markets posted a loss for the week in reaction to weak economic data and elevated levels of COVID cases. Cryptos were hammered lower as the week progressed with ETH and BTC down around 12%. The dollar strengthened.
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US stocks recorded modest gains over the shortened trading week (markets were closed on Wednesday), with the S&P 500 hitting 5,500 intraday for the 1st time ever. The week also saw modest signs of rotation in the market, with value stocks outperforming growth as Nvidia suffered its first down-week in two months. Friday was a so-called triple-witching day, with roughly USD 5.5 trillion in options related to indexes, stocks and ETFs expiring. The start of the week brought some evidence of US economy easing with retail sales signalling less discretionary spending. But data released later in the week suggested that the economy was stronger than indicated by retail sales.