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STOCKS SOARED, COMMODITIES & BONDS DIP
The main US equity indices erased much of the previous week’s losses on optimism that the Fed will be able to curb inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Communication services, consumer discretionary, and IT sectors outperformed while Utilities underperformed. On the macro side, ISM services activity in June came in modestly above consensus estimates but indicated a continuing slowdown in growth. Friday’s US payrolls report showed employers added 372,000 nonfarm jobs in June, well above consensus expectations of around 270,000. YoY earnings grew by 5.1%, marking the 3rd monthly deceleration from March’s recent peak of 5.6%. On Wednesday, Fed June meeting minutes were hawkish, bolstering investors’ expectations for a higher terminal Fed funds rate, supporting higher yields across the curve. U.S. Treasury 10-year notes rose to roughly 3.10% on Friday. The 2-year/10-year segment of the Treasury yield curve inverted. In Europe, stocks advanced after 3 consecutive months of losses while Germany's trade balance showed a deficit — the 1st since 1991— as exports fell unexpectedly. Boris Johnson announced his intention to resign after more than 50 ministers and several Cabinet members stepped down in protest at his handling of a series of scandals that have rocked his administration. In Asia, Japan stocks gained while Chinese stocks eased as rising covid cases and elevated geopolitical tensions hurt sentiment. Global commodities were crushed again while the dollar and cryptos gained.
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US stocks recorded modest gains over the shortened trading week (markets were closed on Wednesday), with the S&P 500 hitting 5,500 intraday for the 1st time ever. The week also saw modest signs of rotation in the market, with value stocks outperforming growth as Nvidia suffered its first down-week in two months. Friday was a so-called triple-witching day, with roughly USD 5.5 trillion in options related to indexes, stocks and ETFs expiring. The start of the week brought some evidence of US economy easing with retail sales signalling less discretionary spending. But data released later in the week suggested that the economy was stronger than indicated by retail sales.