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Bad news for the economy is good news for stocks
Signs that growth and inflation might be moderating helped stocks rally sharply over the week, lifting the S&P 500 out of bear market territory. With the exception of energy, all sectors in the index recorded strong gains. Several economic data signaled that the Fed’s monetary tightening was having the intended effect of slowing the US economy and moderating inflation. E.g US home sales fell to their lowest level in May since June 2020, the S&P Global’s index of June manufacturing activity came in well below forecasts (52.4 versus roughly 56) while the University of Michigan’s of June consumer sentiment was revised down to 50.0, its lowest level in records dating back over four decades. On Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chair Powell testified before Congress that inflation expectations appeared to remain anchored. His comments, along with the weaker-than-expected economic readings, briefly pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note near 3.0%, down significantly from the previous week’s peak of nearly 3.5%. Shares in Europe snapped three weeks of losses as signs that the economy is slowing cast doubt on whether central banks would seek to increase interest rates aggressively. Chinese stock markets advanced on stimulus hopes after President Xi Jinping pledged to roll out more measures to support the economy and minimize the impact of COVID-19. Cryptos have moved sharply higher, with bitcoin +20% and eth +40% from last Saturday's lows.
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Worries over an economic slowdown appeared to weigh on sentiment as the S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly performance since March 2023 . Tech shares led the declines, driven in part by a drop in NVIDIA following rumors that it may be the subject of a Justice Department antitrust investigation, which led to a roughly USD 300 billion drop in the chip giant’s market capitalization. Energy shares were also especially weak on the back of a decline in oil prices. Conversely, the typically defensive utilities, consumer staples, and real estate sectors held up better. US economic data generally surprised on the downside, raising fears that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to ease monetary policy.