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Stocks retreated while oil popped
Stocks gave back some of last week’s strong gains as investors still wonder if the Fed will be able to normalize inflation rate without triggering a recession. The S&P was actually the week's biggest loser while Small Caps did better. Industrials and Consumer discretionary stocks outperformed. Volatility continued to moderate since its recent peak in mid-May despite warnings from JPMorgan's CEO that an economic “hurricane” was coming because of rising interest rates and elevated commodity prices. A report Friday that Elon Musk had emailed fellow executives that Tesla might have to lay off 10% of its workforce also seemed to unsettle investors somewhat. However, the week’s economic data did little to support worries of an impending recession. For instance, Friday job numbers showed that US employers added 390k nonfarm jobs in May, well above consensus expectations. Despite the signs of slowing inflation and speculation about a possible Fed pause, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.96% (versus 2.74% last week). European shares fell in thin volume as the UK market closed early to celebrate the Queen’s 70th year on the throne. Inflation in the 19 EU countries accelerated more than expected in May to another record high of 8.1%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was positive for the week while Chinese stocks rallied after Beijing unveiled a raft of support measures to cushion an economic slowdown. Oil prices exploded higher this week as OPEC+ didn't break up as so many hoped. Cryptos were volatile.
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Stocks suffered their worst week in six months as an avalanche of geopolitical and macro-economic headlines crossed paths with an ugly technical situation. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices all fell by over 3%, while the Dow Jones shed 2.37%, erasing most of its year-to-date gains. Ongoing uncertainty around trade policy remained a focal point throughout the week. Macro data shows manufacturing growth slowing while services activity is accelerating. The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly below expectations but ahead of January’s reading of 125,000. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.69% lower, snapping 10 weeks of gains.
