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Stocks retreated while oil popped
Stocks gave back some of last week’s strong gains as investors still wonder if the Fed will be able to normalize inflation rate without triggering a recession. The S&P was actually the week's biggest loser while Small Caps did better. Industrials and Consumer discretionary stocks outperformed. Volatility continued to moderate since its recent peak in mid-May despite warnings from JPMorgan's CEO that an economic “hurricane” was coming because of rising interest rates and elevated commodity prices. A report Friday that Elon Musk had emailed fellow executives that Tesla might have to lay off 10% of its workforce also seemed to unsettle investors somewhat. However, the week’s economic data did little to support worries of an impending recession. For instance, Friday job numbers showed that US employers added 390k nonfarm jobs in May, well above consensus expectations. Despite the signs of slowing inflation and speculation about a possible Fed pause, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.96% (versus 2.74% last week). European shares fell in thin volume as the UK market closed early to celebrate the Queen’s 70th year on the throne. Inflation in the 19 EU countries accelerated more than expected in May to another record high of 8.1%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was positive for the week while Chinese stocks rallied after Beijing unveiled a raft of support measures to cushion an economic slowdown. Oil prices exploded higher this week as OPEC+ didn't break up as so many hoped. Cryptos were volatile.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.