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BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS AGAIN
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Index recorded strong gains, breaking a string of seven consecutive weekly declines. Every sector in the S&P 500 advanced, with consumer discretionary and energy stocks performing especially well. Markets seem to reflect optimism that inflationary pressures could be peaking. Indeed, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, ticked up 0.3% in April, in line with expectations and little changed from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the minutes from the early-May FOMC meeting contained few surprises, with all members voicing support for 50-basis-point rate increases over the next few meetings in an effort to bring interest rates to a neutral level that neither inhibits nor stimulates economic growth. Last but not least, US Macro data have disappointed for 6 straight weeks with May set to see the biggest plunge in reported data relative to expectations since the collapse in April 2020. But it appears that bad news was seen as good news once again: the US 10- year U.S. Treasury yield traded lower and US stocks soared. In Europe, shares rose as confidence grew that inflation may be peaking and as central banks signaled that interest rate increases are likely to be gradual. Chinese markets weakened amid concerns over slowing growth exacerbated by the government’s zero-tolerance approach to the coronavirus. The dollar weakened while cryptos tumbled. WTI Oil hit $115.
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US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.