WEEKLY SUMMARY: Stocks shook off latest bank fears
US equity returns varied widely over the week as banking industry and recession worries weighed on value stocks and small-caps, while large-cap growth stocks benefited from falling interest rates. Financials underperformed for a third consecutive week while the average stock remained significantly weaker than the S&P 500 Index’s return suggests. As was widely expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points and the “dot plot” indicated that officials expected to stop raising rates after one more hike in May. References to ongoing rate increases were also removed from the official statement. On the macro side, the S&P Global’s Composite Index of both current services and manufacturing activity jumped from 50.1 to 53.3, indicating the fastest pace of private sector growth since last May, with new orders turning higher for the first time since September. The upside data surprises appeared to lift the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note from a six-month intraday low on Friday morning, but the yield still finished modestly lower for the week. Shares in Europe gained ground, despite weakness in bank stocks. Chinese stocks rose on hopes that the country’s central bank will maintain an accommodative stance amid the global banking turmoil. Despite gold's appeal, it ended the week basically unchanged, rebounding from the early week losses and topping $2000 twice intraweek. WTI oil could not hold above $70. Cryptos were volatile.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.