WEEKLY SUMMARY: Stocks, Bonds & Gold soar as inflation cools down
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Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week mixed, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones advancing while the Russell 2000 declined. We note that Momentum stocks fell 18% on Wednesday & Thursday. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday. On the macro front, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, missing estimates (110,000) and marking the softest reading since February’s negative print. Prior months were also revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Following the report, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting dropped from around 29% to about 18%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. On Wednesday, private payrolls firm ADP also reported that private employers added a lower-than-expected 98,000 jobs in June, down from 122,000 in May.
Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week mixed, as renewed weakness in large-cap tech and AI-related shares weighed heavily on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index, while the small-cap Russell 2000 Index and Dow advanced 1.01% and 0.60%, respectively. As measured by Russell indexes, large-cap value stocks outpaced their growth counterparts by 368 basis points, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index also solidly outperformed its market cap-weighted peer. On the US macro side, PCE inflation accelerated but spending and income rose. June business activity improved as GDP growth was revised higher.
Most major U.S. stock indexes closed the holiday-shortened week higher, with sentiment broadly supported by news that the U.S. and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding, clearing the path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and helping push oil prices lower (worst week in 2 months). Of the major US equities indexes, the Nasdaq Composite performed best, advancing 2.4%, followed by the Russell 2000 and S&P 500, which added 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, as widely expected. However, the central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference were largely interpreted as leaning hawkish, triggering a sell-off in stocks and a rise in short-term Treasury yields on Wednesday afternoon.


