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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Stocks, Bonds & Gold soar as inflation cools down
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Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week mixed as investors weighed easing concerns about inflation and Fed policy and some favorable AI-related earnings news against rising oil prices, continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and weaker-than-expected consumer data.
The Nasdaq led with its best week since April, supported by solid earnings, renewed AI enthusiasm, and hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. labor market weakened sharply. Payrolls fell by 23,000 in July versus expectations for an 80,000 gain, while previous months were revised lower. Job openings also declined and ADP private payroll growth slowed to just 44,000. Unemployment nevertheless edged down to 4.1%. Rate-hike expectations declined: following the weak jobs report, the probability of a September Fed hike dropped to roughly 42% from 55%. U.S. business activity remained resilient. U.S. manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6, its highest since May 2022.
The Nasdaq, the Dow, and S&P 500 Index all advanced, while the Russell 2000 Index was little changed, in a week characterized by sharp swings tied to the Fed’s policy meeting, the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, and volatility in AI-related shares. Consumer discretionary led the S&P 500 sectors—supported by a late-week rally in Amazon shares. Concerns about the sustainability of heavy AI investments continued early in the week, with many AI-related shares coming under pressure amid questions about elevated capex, circular financing, and rising competition. However, sentiment reversed sharply on Thursday after Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected growth in its Azure cloud business and issued an encouraging outlook, helping support a broad rebound in recently weak tech stocks. The Fed left the rate target range unchanged. However, three policymakers dissented, voting instead to raise rates.