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WEEKLY SUMMARY: US stocks closed at the highest since April 2022
Main US equities indices ended higher over a week notable for the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its 13th consecutive daily gain on Wednesday, which marked its longest winning streak since 1987. Trading activity was relatively subdued due to the summer vacation season. It was nevertheless a busy week in terms of news flow. The Fed announced a 0.25% increase in the federal funds target rate, as expected. The tone of the Fed’s statement was received as relatively benign, however, and expectations grew that the Fed was done raising rates, at least for the year. The ECB increased interest rates to 3.75% in a largely expected move. Meanwhile, the BoJ decided to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0.1% but surprised investors with the announcement that it would conduct YCC with greater flexibility to enhance the sustainability of monetary easing. Beyond central banks, investors’ sentiment appeared to get a boost from a series of strong corporate earnings but also generally positive economic readings, particularly on inflation. Indeed, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was lower than expectations and the slowest increase since September 2021. European inflation also continues to ease. Meanwhile US and EU GDP data came out stronger than expected. Last but not least, Chinese equities rallied after Beijing signaled it will provide more stimulus to support the economy.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.