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WEEKLY SUMMARY: US stocks closed at the highest since April 2022
Main US equities indices ended higher over a week notable for the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its 13th consecutive daily gain on Wednesday, which marked its longest winning streak since 1987. Trading activity was relatively subdued due to the summer vacation season. It was nevertheless a busy week in terms of news flow. The Fed announced a 0.25% increase in the federal funds target rate, as expected. The tone of the Fed’s statement was received as relatively benign, however, and expectations grew that the Fed was done raising rates, at least for the year. The ECB increased interest rates to 3.75% in a largely expected move. Meanwhile, the BoJ decided to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0.1% but surprised investors with the announcement that it would conduct YCC with greater flexibility to enhance the sustainability of monetary easing. Beyond central banks, investors’ sentiment appeared to get a boost from a series of strong corporate earnings but also generally positive economic readings, particularly on inflation. Indeed, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was lower than expectations and the slowest increase since September 2021. European inflation also continues to ease. Meanwhile US and EU GDP data came out stronger than expected. Last but not least, Chinese equities rallied after Beijing signaled it will provide more stimulus to support the economy.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.